Pyroxene: A Territorial Decision Support System Based on Spatial Simulators Integration for Forest Fire Risk Management

2. Multi-Modelling Of Spatial Dynamics Leading To Changes In Forest Fire Risk

Forest fire risk increase stems from the competition between two very different spatial dynamics: fuel spaces dynamics (forest ecosystems), and vulnerable spaces dynamics, in particular discontinuously urbanised territories (Jappiot et al., 2000). Both of them are controlled by the social regulation system, for example through land planning. In Figure 1, we describe the link between land cover dynamics and changes in the map of risk levels, as well as the limits of the integrated system to be modelled.

Figure 1.

Integration of land cover change models to simulate risk evolutions

In order to support spaces management planning decision-making, it is not required to represent the social system of regulation decision making itself. This social system is, in fact, the end user of our specified tool. The end user will elaborate and test different planning scenarios in order to assess their possible effect on the future map of the risk levels during the plan execution period.