How Accurate is an Effort Model?

Abstract

Building effort models or using techniques to obtain a measure of estimated effort does not mean that the effort estimates obtained will be accurate. As such, it is also important and necessary to assess the estimation accuracy of the effort models or techniques under scrutiny. For this, we need to employ a process called cross-validation. Cross-validation means that part of the original data set is used to build an effort model, or is used by an effort estimation technique, leaving the remainder of the data set (data not used in the model-building process) to be used to validate the model or technique. In addition, in parallel with conducting cross-validation, prediction accuracy measures are also obtained. Examples of de facto accuracy measures are the mean magnitude of relative error (MMRE), the median magnitude of relative error (MdMRE), and prediction at 25% (Pred[25]).