An Adaptive Framework for Power Components Dynamic Loadability

Abstract

In electrical competitive markets, where deregulation and privatisation have determined changes in the organizational structures of the electricity supply industry as well as in the operation of power systems, utilities necessitate to change dynamically the loadability rating of power components without penalizing their serviceability. When assessing network load capability, the prediction of the Hot Spot Temperature (HST) of power components represents the most critical factor since it is essential to assess the thermal stress of the components, the loss of insulation life and the consequent risks of both technical and economical nature. In this chapter a general adaptive framework for power components dynamic loadability is proposed. In order to estimate the effectiveness of the adaptive framework, based on grey-box modelling, a specific case study, concerning the problem of forecasting the HST of a mineral-oil-immersed transformer, is presented.