E-Capital Budgeting: Managing Strategic Investments in a World of Uncertainty

Abstract

Over the last five years, firms with strong presence on the Internet have seen increases in the value of their firms to what some consider obscene levels. The “new era” economy has led to “irrational exuberance” in the stock market. This era of uncertainty has also unleashed numerous valuable opportunities for firms. The world in general and e-commerce ventures in particular are dominated by strategic investments with lots of uncertainty that require huge capital outlays. Moreover, these projects must have the ability to adapt to changing conditions that evolve as new information becomes available. The failure of traditional discounted cash flows (DCF), such as NPV, in valuing e-commerce projects is partially due to meager cash flows relative to required investments and high discount rate due to unknown risk in the projects. This chapter will show how techniques used in valuing financial options can be used to value project or firms under conditions of extreme uncertainty.