In 2018, East Asia accounted for accounted for 31% of gross world product (GWP). A global forecasting model developed by Hooke and updated by Hooke, Alati, and Kaur for the first three chapters of this book suggests that the region's share will remain at about this level until 2050, with the effects of global labour productivity convergence more than offsetting East Asia's relatively slow work force growth. Thereafter, the share will decline to 18% by 2100 due mainly to more rapid productivity and work force growth in West Asia and Africa. China is expected to retain its position as the world's largest economy until about the middle of this century, at which time its GDP will be more than 2.5 times that of the United States. An important driver of growth in East Asia during the coming decades will be Indonesia, whose share of GWP is forecast to rise from 2.6% in 2018 to 3.8% by 2050.
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In 1950, East Asia accounted for 32 percent of the world’s population but only 7 percent of gross world product (GWP). By 2018, the region’s share of world population had fallen slightly, to 30 percent; however, reflecting very strong growth of labour productivity, especially in Northeast Asia, its share of GWP had increased more than fourfold to 31 percent. It is projected by the United Nation’s Population Division that East Asia’s population will rise modestly in the coming decades, to 2.4 billion in 2050, but will then decline to less than 2 billion by 2100. The model developed by the authors, which is described briefly in the preceding chapter, suggests that East Asia’s gross regional product (GRP) – the sum of the gross domestic products (GDPs) of all the countries in East Asia - will be 29 percent of GWP in 2050 but, reflecting its own declining population as well as strong growth of population, labour force participation rates and labour productivity in West Asia and Africa, will decline to 18 per cent by 2100 (Table 1).
Table 1. Major Economic Indicators, 1950-2100
| 1950 | 2000 | 2010 | 2018 | 2050 | 2100 |
| Population (mn) | | | | | | |
| East Asia | 818 | 2,004 | 2,156 | 2,288 | 2,375 | 1,952 |
| West Asia | 505 | 1,501 | 1,795 | 1,998 | 2,879 | 2,753 |
| America | 424 | 1,115 | 1,233 | 1,365 | 1,161 | 1,148 |
| Europe | 547 | 720 | 731 | 741 | 704 | 626 |
| Africa | 222 | 791 | 1,013 | 1,243 | 2,424 | 4,171 |
| Oceania | 14 | 32 | 37 | 41 | 57 | 76 |
| World | 2,530 | 6,164 | 6,966 | 7,676 | 9,599 | 10,727 |
| Total GDP (I$ tn) | | | | | | |
| East Asia | 0.8 | 13.4 | 27.6 | 41.5 | 153 | 315 |
| West Asia | 0.8 | 9.3 | 15.6 | 23.2 | 159 | 444 |
| America | 3.6 | 23.2 | 28.0 | 33.0 | 84 | 185 |
| Europe | 5.3 | 23.6 | 24.7 | 29.2 | 55 | 101 |
| Africa | 0.3 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 60 | 673 |
| Oceania | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 4 | 12 |
| World | 11 | 74 | 102 | 135 | 515 | 1,731 |
| Per capita GDP (I$) | | | | | | |
| East Asia | 984 | 6,671 | 12,794 | 18,150 | 64,285 | 161,333 |
| West Asia | 1,530 | 6,214 | 8,689 | 11,591 | 55,258 | 161,333 |
| America | 8,386 | 20,832 | 22,705 | 24,197 | 72,675 | 161,333 |
| Europe | 9,721 | 32,702 | 33,726 | 39,390 | 78,220 | 161,333 |
| Africa | 1,366 | 4,611 | 5,232 | 5,504 | 24,680 | 161,333 |
| Oceania | 8,450 | 29,141 | 32,963 | 38,380 | 63,816 | 161,333 |
| World | 4,297 | 12,016 | 14,697 | 17,630 | 53,612 | 161,333 |
Sources. World Bank’s World Economic Indicators, IMF’s World Economic Outlook, UN Population Division, CIA’s World Factbook, authors’ forecasting model.
Note. GDP is measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, at 2018 prices.