What is Expert Systems (ES)

The author makes an analysis of the ICAO documents on risk assessment. To determine the quantitative characteristics of risk levels, models for decision-making (DM) by the operators (pilots, air traffic controllers, engineers) under risk and uncertainty have been developed. The new methodology includes the process of integration deterministic, stochastic, and non-stochastic uncertainty models. Application of artificial intelligence (AI) models for the organization of collaborative decision making (CDM) by all aviation operators using individual models based on general information on the flight. The CDM models involve an uninterrupted process of presenting information, ensuring the synchronization of decisions, and the exchange of information an acceptable level of efficiency and safety were obtained. Models of multi-stage DM in risk conditions are presented taking into account threats at the stages of development of the situation. In addition, the chapter presents some examples of DM in an emergency (light strike) by the author and students at National Aviation University, Ukraine.