A Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network for Daily NO2 Concentration Forecasting

A Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network for Daily NO2 Concentration Forecasting

Bingchun Liu, Xiaogang Yu, Qingshan Wang, Shijie Zhao, Lei Zhang
DOI: 10.4018/IJITWE.2021100102
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Abstract

NO2 pollution has caused serious impact on people's production and life, and the management task is very difficult. Accurate prediction of NO2 concentration is of great significance for air pollution management. In this paper, a NO2 concentration prediction model based on long short-term memory neural network (LSTM) is constructed with daily NO2 concentration in Beijing as the prediction target and atmospheric pollutants and meteorological factors as the input indicators. Firstly, the parameters and architecture of the model are adjusted to obtain the optimal prediction model. Secondly, three different sets of input indicators are built on the basis of the optimal prediction model to enter the model learning. Finally, the impact of different input indicators on the accuracy of the model is judged. The results show that the LSTM model has high application value in NO2 concentration prediction. The maximum temperature and O3 among the three input indicators improve the prediction accuracy while the NO2 historical low-frequency data reduce the prediction accuracy.
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Literature Review

The existing research methods for air prediction are mainly divided into physics-based and statistical methods. The physics-based models include dispersion models (Fallah-shorshani et al., 2017) and chemical transport models (Menut et al., 2012), among others. However, due to the uncertainty in the physicochemical properties of air pollutants (Kim et al., 2010; Pisoni et al., 2018), the quality and scale of emission values can still largely affect the accuracy of prediction results even if physics-based models can simulate some components of air (Xiao et al., 2015; Wei et al., 2013), it is difficult to predict air pollutant concentrations accurately. Statistical methods usually construct models for prediction based on a large amount of historical air quality data and statistical correlations between objective factors related to them (Yuval and Broday, 2013; Mihăiţă et al., 2019). Statistical methods can be divided into statistical models, machine learning models, and deep learning models.

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