A Multimethodology for Supporting the Boundary Selection of System Dynamics Models

A Multimethodology for Supporting the Boundary Selection of System Dynamics Models

Leandro Duarte dos Santos, Sandro Luis Schlindwein, Erwin Hugo Ressel Filho, Caroline Rodrigues Vaz, Mauricio Uriona Maldonado, Alfredo Celso Fantini, Mischel Carmen Neyra Belderrain
Copyright: © 2021 |Pages: 18
DOI: 10.4018/IJSDA.20211001.oa12
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Abstract

System dynamics models can produce knowledge for decision-makers and, consequently, provide better choices. To be effective in its purpose, a model must reproduce an observed problem situation effectively. Hence, the compatibility between the observed problem situation and the created model is essential and represents a considerable challenge. In this context, this paper aims to describe an adaptation of the problem structuring method ‘Strategic Options Development and Analysis’ (SODA), used in the Problem Articulation (Boundary Selection) step of the system dynamics modelling process. In summary, this adaptation consists of: (1) Selecting of stakeholders; (2) Capturing, aggregating and interpreting the insights using cognitive and causal maps, and (3) Using the interpretation of the causal maps for building a system dynamics model. The method proved to be satisfactory since it was able to direct the construction of a System Dynamics model based on a problem situation perceived by stakeholders acting in the native forests of the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil.
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Introduction

Managing complex and dynamics problems is not an easy task. This difficulty emerges mainly from the non-capability of predicting unwanted negative consequences, which results from the decision-making process. However, the simulation of the dynamics of a problem situation, from mathematical models based on the System Dynamics approach, can generate knowledge about this situation, and consequently guide decisions with a systemic and dynamics feature, thus providing a greater probability of “correct” actions. (Vennix, 1996; Sterman, 2000; Meadows, 2008; Aslani et al., 2018; Omamo et al., 2018; Abdollahi & Ebrahimi, 2019; Haddad & Otayek, 2019; Zelinka & Amadei, 2019; Kizito & Semwanga, 2020; Santos et al., 2020).

The benefits provided by system dynamics models are linked to their correct constructions. One of the main requirements for the process of building these models is that they can effectively replicate the problem situation faced. Thus, it must be compatibility between the problem situation faced and the model (Vennix, 1996; Sterman, 2000).

One way to achieve this compliance is through the adoption of a modelling process supported by Group Model Building (Vennix, 1996). In short, Group Model Building consists of an approach in which a facilitator, with knowledge in system dynamics and assisted by a group of stakeholders, builds a system dynamics model able of replicating the dynamics of a problem situation faced by that group.

According to Vennix (1996), the Group Model Building approach requires the engagement of a stakeholder’s group, demanding periodic face-to-face meetings. This kind of meeting may be impossible, specially, in the case of a conflicting agenda of the group members. Then, the following question arises: is it possible to create a system dynamics model that replicates the problem situation faced by a group of stakeholders without face-to-face meetings to provide Group Model Building sections?

Santos et al. (2019), proposed an adaptation of a Problem Structuring Method (PSM) that can be done without face-to-face meetings. These authors applied the PSM Strategic Option Development and Analysis, in a group of stakeholders of the native forest of Santa Catarina state, Brazil. The implementing carried out by Santos et al. (2019) was able to structure a problem situation without face-to-face meetings with all stakeholders. However, is this PSM able to support the modelling process of System Dynamics Models?

The affirmative answer to this question can be provided by this paper since its objective is to describe an adaptation of the Strategic Option Development and Analysis (SODA) designed to be used at the first step of the system dynamics modelling process, which is Problem Articulation (Boundary Selection). The adaptation of the SODA for the system dynamics modelling process can support setting the boundary for system dynamics models, thus providing a compatibilization between a problem situation faced and a system dynamics model, avoiding building the right model for the wrong problem.

We present below the basic elements for understanding the adapted PSM for the context of system dynamics modelling process. Initially, we show a brief description of the Modelled Problem Situation in which the adapted PSM was created. Next, we present a short explanation about both the traditional System Dynamics modelling process and Strategic Option Development and Analysis - SODA problem structuring method. After, the basic elements for understanding the Proposed Multimethodology is described. Then, we present an applying of the proposed multimethodology for the context of the native forest of Santa Catarina state, Brazil. Finally, we highlight some Final Considerations.

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