A Study of Estimation of Wind Potential and Prediction of Grid-Connected Wind Power Development in Vietnam

Introduction

In recent years, the utilization of renewable energy sources for sustainable, efficient and clean electricity power systems has become a critical research topic worldwide. The transition of energy systems moving from non-renewable fossil-nuclear to renewable sources is a key challenge of climate mitigation and sustainable development (Filippov et al., 2015). There is a strong growth pattern in terms of the installed wind capacity, with the worldwide wind capacity increasing from 369,862 MW at the end of 2014 to 486,790MW at the end of 2016 (GWEC, 2016).

Vietnam was expected to have a highest potential of wind power in Southeast Asia (Phan et al., 2012). Since 2000, the wind energy potential has been assessed in a number of projects. In 2001, with the support of World Bank, TrueWind Solutions, LLC, launched the Wind Energy Atlas of Southeast Asia. It also reported that Vietnam had nearly 8,000 km² (8.6% of the country’s total territory) of good to excellent wind for WF operation, while the corresponding figures in Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand were 345 km² (0.2%), 6776 km² (2.9%), and 761 km² (0.2%), respectively (TrueWind Solutions, 2001).

In 2011, a report from AWS TruePower, LLC, Socialist republic of Vietnam (AWS TruePower, LCC, 2011) stated that Vietnam remained an attractive area for wind energy development, with the promissing areas being the area of the south-central coast. The wind energy potential of Vietnam at a height of 80 m above the ground was estimated as follows: annual average wind speed of 5 to 6 m s^-1 covering an area 40,473 km² with an expected power capacity of approximately 404,732 MW and from 6 to 7 m s^-1 accounting for 2,435 km² with a capacity of 24,351 MW.

During the last decade, Vietnam was experiencing the high economic growth with the average gross domestic product (GDP) annual growth rate of 7.2%. This economic development directly affects the electric demand of the country (Nguyen, 2007). In 2014, the Vietnamese electricity production 145.5TWh was mainly supplied by hydro power (38%, not including small hydro), CCGT (31%) and coal (26%) (Kites, 2015).

The national master plan on development of Vietnam electricity period of 2011 – 2020 with a vision to 2030, which was approved in 2011 and adjusted in 2016 (Prime Minister, SRV Government, 2016) pointed that renewable energy (wind energy, solar energy, bio energy) will be prioritized, so as to gradually increase the proportion of electricity generated from RE sources (Table 1).