Application of GM (1,1) and Seasonal Cross-Trend Model in the Forecast of Tourist Population in Sanya

Application of GM (1,1) and Seasonal Cross-Trend Model in the Forecast of Tourist Population in Sanya

Guo-Feng Fan (Ping Ding Shan University, Pingdingshan, China), Xiang-Ru Jin (Ping Ding Shan University, Pingdingshan, China) and Li-ling Peng (Ping Ding Shan University, Pingdingshan, China)
Copyright: © 2019 |Pages: 14
DOI: 10.4018/IJAEC.2019100103

Abstract

In recent years, tourism has been playing an increasingly prominent role in China's economic development, especially in the tourism-oriented cities. Therefore, Sanya has been selected for research and analysis in this paper to reveal the tourism development law of Sanya. Based on gray system GM (1,1) and seasonal cross-trend model, this article analyzes domestic annual and monthly tourist numbers in Sanya, reveals their development rules, and forecasts their future development trends with this model.
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1. Introduction

In recent years, China's tourism has maintained rapid development, the government is also expanding tourism, tourism as a new growth point of the national economy has been confirmed. Sanya is an international tourist city with tropical coastal scenery and is a resort, known as “Oriental Hawaii”. Tourism is the pillar of Sanya's economic development, accounting for 70% of the city's total income. Tourism promotes the rapid economic development of Sanya, and the number of tourists is an important index to measure tourism. Therefore, we take Sanya as an example to forecast the annual tourist number in Sanya in order to forecast the overall development trend of Sanya, and at the same time to forecast the monthly tourist number in Sanya, so that the government and scenic spots can make full planning.

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