Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) in Emergency Caused by Captain Incapacitation: Deterministic and Stochastic Modelling

Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) in Emergency Caused by Captain Incapacitation: Deterministic and Stochastic Modelling

Tetiana Shmelova, Maxim Yatsko, Iurii Sierostanov
Copyright: © 2023 |Pages: 27
DOI: 10.4018/IJDSST.320477
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Abstract

The authors present a new approach to decision-making to ensure the proper collaboration of different personnel. Models are used in intelligent integrated decision support systems, especially for actions in emergencies. Behavioral deterministic models are used for synchronization actions of all operators, to support and timely predicting of operators' actions in an emergency. To determine the quantitative characteristics of risk levels, models for collaborative decision making (CDM) under uncertainty by the operators (pilots, air traffic controllers, flight/dispatch), and other invited specialists, have been developed. The decision-making modeling of a group of operators in case of an emergency situation such as “pilot incapacitation” was presented. The methodological basis for CDM in certainty is network planning, in conditions of Stochastic uncertainty – is a decision tree, in conditions of non-stochastic uncertainty – is a matrix of decisions, and outcomes are made this using the expert judgment method for obtaining quantity estimations.
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1. Introduction

Analysis of aviation events shows that the cause of more than 80% of is the human factor. Generally, most aviation specialists are sufficiently trained as professionals (International Civil Aviation Organization [ICAO], 2002a, 2004; Aviation Accident Statistics [AAS], 2017; Leychenko et al., 2006). As of now ICAO constantly develops and improves proactive, based on the evaluation of the risks, and methods, directed at the further decrease in the number of aviation events in the world. There are many circulars, documents, and reports of ICAO presented conceptual models of human factors (ICAO, 2002a, 2004, 2013) starting from a well-known model SHEL model (Software (procedures) - Hardware (machines) - Environment - Liveware), and next evolution of models to SHELL and SCHELL. The components such as “Culture” and the influence of society are important for safety in aviation, for example, SCHELL model (ICAO, 2004; Shmelova, et al., 2017). The component “Culture” means the ongoing interaction of a group of people with their environment. Culture develops and changes due to technological, physical, and social changes in the environment. Culture is embedded in four general contexts: political, physical, social, economic, etc. The component “Liveware - Liveware” means rational interaction between operators in aviation systems and Air Navigation Systems (ANS). ANS is presented as Socio-Technical System with determining the influence of the factors (professional and non-professional) that influence DM by the H-O in STS (individually psychological, socio-psychological, and psychophysiological factors) on professional activity and preventing catastrophic situations (Kharchenko, et al., 2012; 2016). The last modern models are related to the next directions:

  • ° Flight & Flow Information for a Collaborative Environment (FF-ICE) (ICAO, 2012)

  • ° Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) (ICAO, 2014).

  • ° System-Wide Information Sharing and Management (SWIM) (ICAO, 2015).

  • ° Global Aviation Security Plan (GASP) (ICAO, 2017).

  • ° Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Intelligence Decision Support system (ICAO, 2017; 2018).

  • ° Remotely Piloted Aircraft System (RPAS) Concept of operations (CONOPS) (ICAO, 2019).

  • ° Year of Security Culture (YOSC) (ICAO, 2021)

  • ° Integrated Communications, Navigation, Surveillance, and Spectrum (ICNSS) (ICAO, 2022).

The relevant modern concepts are the information and intelligent support (AI) of collective solutions (CDM) of different specialists in an emergency (ICAO, 2017; International Air Transport Association [IATA], 2019). The Concept of operations (CONOPS) describes the operating environment of Manned and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) in integrated airspace (ICAO, 2020). The introduction of new technological solutions for modeling CDM and intelligent support of collective solutions requires the use of a modern information environment based on the concepts of SWIM, ICNSS, CONOPS and FF-ICE, for the joint use of airspace and integration of Communications, Navigation, Surveillance (CNS) systems (ICAO, 2009, 2002b, 2005, 2012, 2015, 2022; IATA, 2019). The effectiveness of CDM modeling is especially relevant in the event of an emergency in flight but in a critical situation as usually many specialists and many solutions too! The main specialists who participate in the collective solutions are presented in Figure 1.

The occurrence of an emergency in flight is characterized by incompleteness and uncertainty of information. Decision-making (DM) takes place in conditions of acute shortage of time and significant psycho-physiological load, which is one of the reasons for violations and mistakes (ICAO, 2004, 2013, 2021; Shmelova, et al., 2017). Finding the best solution in such conditions requires processing much more information than under normal flight conditions.

Figure 1.

Main specialists - participants in CDM

IJDSST.320477.f01

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