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Top1. Introduction
Climate change is no longer considered a global issue alone, but a complex phenomenon having intangible consequences on people’s daily lives at the local level. The Himalayan mountain belt, one of the major hotspots of climate change, has recorded an increase in maximum temperature of about 0.9°C (Dash et al 2007), while the global average warming is around 0.85°C over the last 100 years (IPCC 2013). The Western Himalayan region is facing enormous pressure from social and economic drivers along with the ongoing climate change. Although the drivers of change, if acting independently, may cause minor changes, their cumulative impacts will have drastic socio-ecological consequences. Agriculture is a primitive science, management as well as an art being practiced throughout the world for a long time. In spite of various efforts, production was enhanced significantly but long-term effect was deterioration of soil health, nutritional security problems and the problem of marketability.
With continued increases in global average temperature, the poor and those dependent on natural resources for their livelihood, and those living in geographically isolated areas are expected to face changes in local weather patterns beyond their present capacity to cope.
This study, therefore, is an attempt to understand the issues & challenges and probable solutions for creating a sustainable agriculture supply chain for the state of Uttarakhand with reference to climate change.
1.1 About Uttarakhand
Uttarakhand, one of the 12 Himalayan states of India, is known for its natural beauty and highly varied physiography. Its snow-clad peaks, beautiful hill stations, extended duns and rich biological succession makes it a favorite destination for tourists. About 83 percent land of the state lies under hills while most of the population of the state lives in the southern narrow belt of Tarai plains. Uttarakhand is considered to be highly sensitive to climate-related changes due to its varying topography and rich glacier mass. Intensifying human activities like deforestation, urbanization, mining etc, may affect the regional climate-balance adversely and, thus, may change the pace and fate of the ongoing geomorphic processes. Although the climate is a self-balancing robust system that is capable to manage small (humanogenic) changes, however, due to its chaotic nature it goes randomly at some stage in course of its management cycle (Mishra, 2017).
1.2 Impact of Climate Change in Uttarakhand
Temperature is the key factor that determines climatic properties of a place. The distribution of temperature condition over Uttarakhand varies greatly from -1.7°C at Mukteswar to 42°C at Pantnagar. The average temperature of Almora which is 17.55 C has increased to 0.46 C during last 53 years. Annual rainfall is decreasing and changing its rhythm in the state due to climate change which is adversely affecting the interests of farmers. Out of 1469 glaciers in the state, 14 have been studied and found retreating. Some studies have proved that the glacier water is collecting under the surface which will be a gold mine of water in future. (Sharma, 2016)
The rate at which non-glacial rivers in Uttarakhand are drying up has escalated in the last two decades. Rivers like Kosi, Rispana, Gagas, Saryu and Gaula have lost most of their catchment areas. The lean annual flow of Kosi has decreased from 790 liters per sec in 1992 to 48 liters per sec in 2017. (Rawat, 2018)
Haridwar received more rainfall than normal while all other districts witnessed less precipitation. This rainfall shortage is more acute in Pithoragarh, Bageshwar, Almora, Champawat and Nainital Districts, the report further noted.
In the last two years, Uttarakhand could not report even one percent increase in its forest cover, shows the Forest Survey of India (FSI) report. Only a marginal increase of 23 sq km forest cover was reported since 2015.
In the history of India, there was a year of dissatisfaction for agricultural development in 2002-03 where the contribution of agriculture in GDP became negative. Whereas, during 2008-09 it was maximum i.e. near to 4% against 10% from non-agricultural sector. In Indian scenario as per census of 1980-81, only 66.4% share of marginal farmers were prevailing whereas, as per senses of 201-11 this figure enhanced up to 67%. It means land holding size is decreasing very fast in one hand whereas, number of holding increasing in another hand confirming that there is no scope for horizontal expansion in agriculture and the vertical enhancement is the only way out. (Anusheema, Roopam, Kamna, & P K, 2018)