Crime Prediction Using Twitter Data

Crime Prediction Using Twitter Data

Lydia Jane G., Seetha Hari
Copyright: © 2021 |Pages: 13
DOI: 10.4018/IJeC.2021070104
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Abstract

As social media platforms are being increasingly used across the world, there are many prospects to using the data for prediction and analysis. In the Twitter platform, there are discussions about any events, passions, and many more topics. All these discussions are publicly available. This makes Twitter the ultimate source to use the data as an augmentation for the decision support systems. In this paper, the use of GPS tagged tweets for crime prediction is researched. The Twitter data is collected from Chicago and cleaned, and topic modelling is applied to the resultant set. Before topic modelling, an algorithm has been developed to identify tweets that are relevant to the crime prediction problem. Once the relevant tweets are identified, topic modelling is applied to find out the major crimes in the different beats of Chicago. Kernel density estimation (KDE) is applied to traditional data. The result of this and topic modelling are used to predict the crime count for each beat using logistic regression.
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Twitter data has been used for crime trend prediction (Aghababaei & Makrehchi, 2017). Only Twitter data and no other data has been used for prediction. Crime indices for different crimes are calculated using Twitter data collected over time. Then it is used to predict the crime index for the different crimes for the test data. The change in the crime index shows the change in trend for the crime either from decreasing to increasing or increasing to decreasing. This change is crime index can be used to find the crime which has an increasing trend and to implement measures to prevent and reduce it. Twitter data on the wholescale may reflect the day-to-day activities of the user. If the user posts GPS tagged tweets from various places he visits daily, then by analyzing the tweets it is possible to find the routine activities of the user. By extracting such a pattern from the collected Twitter data and analyzing them using routine activity theory it is possible to predict crime trends (Al Boni & Gerber, 2017). Though the daily activities of the users were considered the sequence in which these activities were done was not considered. So the prediction could be improved by considering the sequence of the activities.

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