Forecasting Methods in Electric Power Sector

Forecasting Methods in Electric Power Sector

Sujit Kumar Panda (KIIT University, Bhubaneswar, India), Alok Kumar Jagadev (KIIT University, Bhubaneswar, India) and Sachi Nandan Mohanty (KIIT University, Bhubaneswar, India)
Copyright: © 2018 |Pages: 21
DOI: 10.4018/IJEOE.2018010101


Electric power plays a vibrant role in economic growth and development of a region. There is a strong co-relation between the human development index and per capita electricity consumption. Providing adequate energy of desired quality in various forms in a sustainable manner and at a competitive price is one of the biggest challenges. To meet the fast-growing electric power demand, on a sustained basis, meticulous power system planning is required. This planning needs electrical load forecasting as it provides the primary inputs and enables financial analysis. Accurate electric load forecasts are helpful in formulating load management strategies in view of different emerging economic scenarios, which can be dovetailed with the development plan of the region. The objective of this article is to understand various long term electrical load forecasting techniques, to assess its applicability; and usefulness for long term electrical load forecasting for an isolated remote region, under different growth scenarios considering demand side management, price and income effect.
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Electrical Load Forecasting


Load forecasting is the predicting of electrical power required to meet the short term, medium term or long-term demand. It is a central and integral process for planning periodical operations and facility expansion in the electricity sector. Demand pattern is almost very complex due to the uncertainty of energy markets. So, to find an appropriate forecasting model for any electricity network is not an easy task.

The main function of electric power system is to provide a reliable and continuous source of electricity wherever whenever required. To provide this service each of the three main components of an electric power system – generation, transmission and distribution must perform efficiently to meet the required demand.

An electric power system is a dynamic system which is a balance of supply and demand:

  • The supply of electricity consists of physical devices that must be designed, constructed & operated to generate, transmit and distribute desired quantity of quality electrical power reliably;

  • The demand of electricity by the consumer, which changes as a function of time on an instantaneous basis (seconds to minutes), on a short-term basis (hours to days) and on a long term basis (months to years).

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