Forecasting Methods in Electric Power Sector

Definition

Load forecasting is the predicting of electrical power required to meet the short term, medium term or long-term demand. It is a central and integral process for planning periodical operations and facility expansion in the electricity sector. Demand pattern is almost very complex due to the uncertainty of energy markets. So, to find an appropriate forecasting model for any electricity network is not an easy task.

The main function of electric power system is to provide a reliable and continuous source of electricity wherever whenever required. To provide this service each of the three main components of an electric power system – generation, transmission and distribution must perform efficiently to meet the required demand.

An electric power system is a dynamic system which is a balance of supply and demand:

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  The supply of electricity consists of physical devices that must be designed, constructed & operated to generate, transmit and distribute desired quantity of quality electrical power reliably;

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  The demand of electricity by the consumer, which changes as a function of time on an instantaneous basis (seconds to minutes), on a short-term basis (hours to days) and on a long term basis (months to years).