How Confirmation Bias Influences Risk and Contingency Management: Lessons From Global Leaders' Responses to the 2020 Pandemic

Introduction

On 21 January 2020, health officials in Washington State reported the first case of the 2020 pandemic in the United States. The man in the case was in his 30s and was in good condition at a hospital in Everett, Washington, after returning from Wuhan, China. Two days later, on 23 January, the Chinese government announced that 17 people had died and more than 500 were infected with this novel pandemic. Therefore, air and rail departures from Wuhan were suspended on that day, and the whole city was locked down soon after that. Reacting to this information, on 25 January 2020, President Donald J. Trump sent a tweet, “China has been working very hard to contain the coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates its efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!” (Trump, 2020). At that time, the coronavirus in China was not perceived as an immediate threat to the United States. Therefore, the U.S. government decided to minimize travel bans - only putting a ban on all travel from China, but not a ban on travels originating from Europe although there had already been reports of the pandemic in some European countries(BBC News (Reality Check team), 2020; Wolfe, 2020).

Throughout January and February of 2020, the pandemic appeared to be manageable in the United States, at least based on the assessment of the U.S. government. The government did not undertake any substantive action until 8 March 2020, when Italy formally locked down more than a quarter of its population to contain the spread of the pandemic there(BBC News (Reality Check team), 2020; Wolfe, 2020). At the same time, nearly 100 other countries had begun to respond to the spread of the pandemic. When the outbreak had reached Washington D.C., the U.S. government began to adopt a more substantive approach. A political convention, attended by Donald Trump and Mike Pence, was organized. However, this occurred well after adequate precautions should have been taken to stem the virus's rapid spread. The United States had been ill-prepared for the pandemic. For instance, even in the most developed areas, such as New York, there was a severe shortage of medical resources.

Table 1 shows the increase of Covid-19 cases and the number of deaths in the United States. In 18 months after January 2020, one can see that there was both a sharp increase of cases and deaths in this most advanced country in terms of medical science and technology (see Figures 1 and 2). Given this country's financial and other resources, it is surprising that the country had done such a poor job in its fight against the coronavirus disease.