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Long-Term Fine-Grained Forecasts of Emergency Demand Using EMS Big Data and Population Estimates

Long-Term Fine-Grained Forecasts of Emergency Demand Using EMS Big Data and Population Estimates

Masaki Kaneda (Kobe University, Japan), Masahide Nakamura (Kobe University, Japan), Sinan Chen (Kobe University, Japan), and Sachio Saiki (Kochi University of Technology, Japan)
Copyright: © 2024 |Pages: 15
DOI: 10.4018/IJBDIA.358106
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Abstract

In recent years, Japan has been facing a super-aging society, impacting various sectors. The issues of overcrowded emergency medical services and the increase in emergency transport cases are particularly severe, necessitating urgent responses. The research group, in collaboration with the Kobe City Fire Department, is conducting a study focusing on long-term fine-grained forecasts of emergency demand. This study aims to provide indicators for the strategic deployment of emergency teams and the scaling of medical facilities. By utilizing regional mesh data, it can capture local characteristics far more precisely than previous city or district-level forecasts, offering significant advantages for local government policy implementation. In the prediction process, there are two stages to leverage national land numerical information and improve the accuracy of the forecast model. The results reveal regional disparities in future emergency demand, enabling optimal allocation of emergency resources and strategic planning for emergency services.
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Preliminaries

Increased Demand for Emergency Services as the Aging

Over recent years, the aging rate in Japan has continued to rise, where the aging rate equals the percentage of the total population aged 65 and over (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, 2022). According to the 2023 White Paper on Health, Labor and Welfare, the aging rate was 29.1% as of 2023 and expected to increase. By 2060, it is estimated that 1 people out of 2.5 will be 65 or older, and about 1 people out of 3.9666 will be 75 or older. According to the 2023 Fire Department White Paper (2024), the number of emergency dispatches by ambulance in 2023 amounted to 7,229,572, an increase from the previous year. Estimates for 2024 indicate that the aging population will lead to an increase in demand for emergency services, and therefore measures are needed to both prevent inadequate emergency response rates

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