Predicting the Death Rate Around the World Due to COVID-19 Using Regression Analysis

History Of Virus

Coronavirus belongs to the Orthocoronavirinae subfamily of the Coronaviridae family in the class Nidovirales, which primarily caused respiratory and gastrointestinal tract infections (Nidovirales, 2012). The 2019-nCoV is a novel beta-coronavirus enveloped with a single-stranded positive-sense RNA genome (Choi et al., 2020). As for the virus sources, some phylogenetic analyzes indicated that the bat is the most likely source of species. Based on genome sequencing, 2019-nCoV is approximately 89% identical to bat SARS-like-CoVZXC21, 82% similar to human SARS-CoV, and about 50% equal to MERS-CoV (Ramanathan, 2020).

Because both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV have been transmitted from bats to palm civets or dromedical camels, and finally to humans, some more species can also be considered as an intermediate host between bat and human. Pangolins were proposed as possible intermediate hosts because their genome was approximately 85.5 percent -92.4 percent identical to 2019-nCoV, reflecting two phylogenetic tree sub-lineages of 2019-nCoV, each of which (GD / P1L and GDP2S) was closely related to 2019-nCoV (Ng et al., 2020). Other work indicated 2019-nCoV was the recombinant virus of bat coronavirus and snake coronavirus, compared with the apparent synonymous bias in the use of codon between separate animal species (Ji et al., 2020). We have yet to discover the facts.