Real-Time Anomaly Detection Using Facebook Prophet

Real-Time Anomaly Detection Using Facebook Prophet

Nithish T., Geeta R. Bharamagoudar, Karibasappa K. G., Shashikumar G. Totad
Copyright: © 2021 |Pages: 12
DOI: 10.4018/IJNCR.2021070103
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Abstract

With sensors percolating through everyday living, it may be toted that there is an enormous increase in the availability of real-time streaming and time series data. We also see an exponential increase in number of industry applications with sensors driven by IoT and connected with data sources that change over time. This time-series data presents many technical challenges, opportunities, and threats to industries. Thus, streaming analytics to model an unsupervised machine learning system for detecting unusual/anomalous behavior in real-time must be prominently addressed. In this paper, the authors propose a real-time abnormality detection model using a Facebook prophet that addresses issues related to the improper Facebook collection of data, further leading to faulty analysis and wrong results. The proposed unsupervised model detects abnormalities in the data captured through customer order by considering day and date as constraints. The proposed model is found to be even more efficient in RMSE score. The proposed model delivered enhanced performance compared to other traditional approaches.
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Introduction

Anomaly identification in time series has been a high priority in academics and industrial. Identifying and tracking abnormal points or areas will offer vital information at critical times, allowing you to avoid or react appropriately to imminent faults (Ding et al., 2019). In the fields of industrial, banking, military, medical, insurance, critical device protection, robotics, multi-agent, network security, and the Internet of Things, abnormalities in time series data must be detected. With the expansion associated with continuous sensors, recognition of inconsistencies in streaming information is getting progressively significant. The utilization cases cut across an enormous number of ventures. It is accepted that irregularity location addresses the most critical close term applications for AI in IoT (Ding et al., 2019)(Ahmad et al., 2017a). An early abnormality discovery is significant, yet it tends to be hard to execute dependably. Application limitations expect frameworks to handle information progressively, not clusters. Streaming information characteristically displays an idea float, preferring calculations that adapt continuously (Ahmad & Purdy, 2016). Anomaly detection is the method of detecting odd objects or occurrences in data sets that are out of the ordinary. Unsupervised anomaly detection is when anomaly detection is used on data that has not been classified. Anomaly detection is based on two fundamental assumptions: Anomalies are extremely rare in the data, and their characteristics vary greatly from the average. Moreover, the huge number of autonomous streams necessitates that oddity finders be completely robotized. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is an evolved form of recurrent neural network that can learn order dependence in sequence prediction problems. This is a requirement in a variety of dynamic problem domains, including machine translation, speech recognition, and others. Deep learning's LSTM networks are complex hard to comprehend.(Tran et al., 2019).

LSTM networks are a form of perceptron that can learn order dependence in sequence anomaly detection. This is a requirement in a variety of dynamic problem domains, including machine translation, speech recognition, and others. There may be lags of undiscovered length among significant occurrences in a time series and, LSTM networks perform quite well for classifying, handling, and forecasting time series data. LSTMs were established to tackle the concerns of feature engineering that can occur when training contemporary Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). A supervised RNN with LSTM units can be trained on a series of predetermined segments by combining an optimization methodology such as neural networks, with supervised learning across the period to analyze the patterns necessary.

An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methodology is a type of computational model that is used to evaluate and estimate time-series data. It provides a convenient but influential process of making skilled time series forecasts by catering a collection of sustainability matters in time-series information (Piccolo, 1990). ARIMA is a category of prototypes that “explains” a specified statistical analysis focused on its previous data, i.e., on its freezes and stalled prediction error, so that approximation will be used to predict values.

The prophet is a time-series data forecasting process that employs a preservative framework that incorporates non-linear prototypes with yearly, weekly, and normal periods, as well as holiday results. It is a historical data predictive model based on an optimization method that suits non-linear patterns with annual, weekly, and regular seasonality. It works optimally with time sequence with heavy periodic implications and contemporary records from several periods. The prophet is forgiving of incomplete information and template alterations, and it typically handles abnormalities effectively. It works best with historical information from disparate seasons and time series that seem to have a clear seasonal impact (Samal & Rani, 2019).

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