IT Risk Evaluation Model Using Risk Maps and Fuzzy Inference

IT Risk Evaluation Model Using Risk Maps and Fuzzy Inference

Constanta- Nicoleta Bodea (Academy of Economic Studies - AES, Romania) and Maria-Iuliana Dascalu (Academy of Economic Studies - AES, Romania)
DOI: 10.4018/jitpm.2010040105
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Abstract

A risk evaluation model for IT projects using fuzzy inference is proposed. The knowledge base for fuzzy processes is built using a causal and cognitive map of risks. This map was specially developed for IT projects and takes into account the typical lifecycle and the risk taxonomy created by the Software Engineering Institute. The model was used to compute the technological risk of an e-testing project. This project was positioned on the middle level of the risk map, implying that the probability of encountering technological difficulties depends on the number of technologies used and their market maturity. A software system for validating the model was also developed.
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It Projects From A Risks Management Perspective

The IT software industry has a high level of risk: „more than 50% of IT projects fail (according to GPM-Association fom project management), 30% of IT projects are stopped before being finished (Standish Group), 50% from IT projects are 90% over-budgeted(Standish Group), the IT project products respect only 40% of the initial specifications (Standish Group).” (Gareis, 2006, p. 275-298)

The growing development of IT technologies requires a permanent improvement of software makers. Because the market demand for IT products is highly dynamic, software developers do not have time to assimilate new technologies and consequently deliver incomplete products. Software quality is the first objective sacrificed. Also, many IT projects are interrupted or experience difficulties that may lead to identity changes. In other words, each IT project is exposed to a wide array of risks.

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