The Impact of Seasonality on the Using of Accommodation Capacity in Operation in Romania

The Impact of Seasonality on the Using of Accommodation Capacity in Operation in Romania

Radu Serban M. Zaharia, Rodica Manuela Gogonea
Copyright: © 2017 |Pages: 10
DOI: 10.4018/IJSEM.2017100105
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Abstract

For accommodation service providers one of the main objectives is to obtain and maintain a higher degree of using of accommodation capacity in operation. Based on these considerations, the paper analyzes the evolution of the index of utilization of the accommodation capacity in operation in the development regions of Romania for a period of six years in order to reveal similarities and disparities between them. For this purpose, besides the analysis of the developments of the index of utilization of the accommodation capacity in operation, the evolution of dispersion spreading is also analyzed. Both the variability amplitudes of the two main indicators and their trend are analyzed. The conclusion of the study is the fact that in Romania, the dispersion of the index of the use of the accommodation capacity in operation had an increasing trend, which means that in terms of the ratio between demand and supply of accommodation, the disparities between development regions continue to grow with all the negative implications on the performance of the tourism industry in Romania.
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Research Methodology

To achieve the research objectives, the main indicator used was the Index of Using of Accommodation Capacity in Operation (IUACO). In order to determine it, the IUACO monthly data series were used at the level of the eight development regions of Romania, between January 2010 and September 2015 (INSSE, 2016):

IJSEM.2017100105.m01
(1)

Starting from the matrix (1) the data series Variance of index of Using Accommodation Capacity in Operation (VUACO) and Coefficient of Variation (COV) ware determined:

IJSEM.2017100105.m02
(2)

The VUACO vector was analyzed as a time series (Oprescu 2007) where t = 1 corresponds to January 2010 and t = 69 to September 2015. Using X11 Multiplicative Method and Hendenson Trend Filter was generated the series: Trend cycle (VUACO_TC), Seasonal factors (VUACO_SF) and Irregular component (VUACO_IC). The result is a multiplicative model of the form:

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