The Relationship Between the Manufacturing Industry and Economic Growth in Turkey

The Relationship Between the Manufacturing Industry and Economic Growth in Turkey

Övgü Alıcı, Dilek Temiz Dinç, Aytaç Gökmen
DOI: 10.4018/IJAMSE.299027
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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to review the 1980-2020 periods, with manufacturing exports in Turkey to investigate whether there is a causal relationship between economic growth and the manufacturing industry. The relationship between manufacturing industry exports and economic growth is analyzed econometrically. A positive correlation has been determined from co-integration analysis in the long run, manufacturing industry exports to economic growth. The Granger causality test applied determined that there is a one-way causality relationship running from manufacturing industry exports to growth in the short run. To support the Granger causality test, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test has also been found to have a one-way causality relationship from manufacturing industry exports to economic growth. After the causality tests, in order to determine the sign of the impact, the stationary series were tested and the Least Squares (OLS) method was applied for the econometric model and the result of the positive effect of the manufacturing industry exports on economic growth was reached.
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Introduction

The importance of trade and the issue of profitability in the history of economics have come to the present day, starting from Adam Smith's theory of absolute advantage and David Ricardo's theories of comparative advantage, and still have not lost its importance in modern foreign trade theories. Two models are applied for developing countries in the industrialization process. The first of these is the import substitution industrialization model. Turkey has applied the model of import substitution industrialization until the 1980s. This model is based on the encouragement of the domestic industry in order to ensure that imported products are produced by the domestic industry. The second model, export-based industrialization, is to remove the obstacles to foreign trade and to take measures to increase exports and to ensure economic growth with industrial exports (Bebun et al., 2018).

Turkey, after the import substitution industrialization strategy was applied in 1929s with the right of import customs duty applications. Later, Turkey had followed the basic decisions and export-led growth strategy on 24th January 1980. Some of these decisions are aimed at re-establishing the current account balance, reducing inflation, reducing the public deficit and converting the growth rate back to negative values into positive. With the export- oriented industrialization strategy, industrialization based on public institutions was abandoned, foreign trade was liberalized, smuggling and black market were tried to be prevented. With the customs union agreement signed with the EU in 1995, customs tariffs were zeroed against EU countries in 1996 for some goods, and a reduction in high tariffs was made for third countries. Export-promoting industrialization strategies are based on supporting sectors that can gain comparative advantage. Thus, due to the increase in exports, growth rate and industrialization increase. Industry has a significant impact on the economic, social, environmental and institutional dimensions of sustainable development. On the other hand, its status and development are also determined by the development of trade and global competition (Bebun et al., 2018). Determining the sector to be supported is important because choosing the wrong sector causes cost loss and comparative advantage may not be obtained. In the development of a country and gaining international competitiveness, industrial policies, thus the industrial sector, are of great importance (Kundak & Aydoğuş, 2018). Countries increase their industrial production, productivity, added value and technology content can gain competitive power around the world and rapidly increase their national income. Even if countries with the remaining industrial production can find the opportunity to enrich with other GDP components, very few of them can fall into the category of developed countries (Bayar & Tokpunar, 2014).

Turkey's economy in the long term is examined, it is envisaged that the manufacturing sector is the leading sector (Bayar & Tokpunar, 2014). Manufacturing is the production of merchandise for the use or sale using labor, machines, tools, chemical and biological processing or formulation. The term may refer to a range of human activity from handcraft to high tech, but is most commonly applied to industrial production, in which raw materials are transformed into finished goods on a large scale. By creating a multiplier effect on other sectors with its supply chain, the manufacturing industry supports production and employment in the service sector, leads innovation and provides faster capital accumulation compared to other sectors (Adofu et al., 2015).

Innovations originating from the manufacturing industry increase the production capacity of the economy and manufacturing industry products have an important place in the exports of many countries. Again, countries with developed manufacturing industry infrastructure have stable exchange rates and growth rates, and the manufacturing industry sector offers high salaries to its qualified employees.

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