This book examines the role of 4IR technologies in the theory of international mediation during peace processes, focusing specifically on the three phases of international mediation theory: pre-mediation, mediation, and post-mediation. In Africa, international mediation faces numerous obstacles, and its success has become more of an ideal than a reality. Interstate conflicts between Ethiopia-Sudan-Egypt, Algeria-Morocco, Kenya-Somalia, and Sudan-South Sudan are all on the rise and looming large in the near future. As the African Union (AU) is responsible for maintaining regional peace, the organisation has deployed mediators to facilitate a mediation process. However, the difficulties inherent in international mediation theory, the nature of African conflicts, and the inability to comprehend the role and effects of 4IR technologies have prevented the AU mediation team from playing a noteworthy role. In addition, the post-mediation period in the Central African Republic (CAR) has been marred by intense conflicts between governments and armed groups. This indicates that the CAR international mediation process has failed. In the post-mediation phase of the CAR, conflicting parties’ interests have become more divergent.
While informal and traditionally driven mediation processes to resolve a conflict have existed in Africa for many generations, an institutionalised and African-driven international mediation process was practised during the Cold War and became more pivotal in the post-Cold War era. Mediation initiatives undertaken over the last 25 years, partly due to an increase in intra-state conflicts on the continent, have resulted in increased conflict recurrence in post-mediation phases. Many mediation processes began in the 1980s to end apartheid in South Africa. This mediation process took place during a period of high Cold War antagonism. From 1990 to the present, African mediators have participated in numerous international mediation processes, but none have resulted in democratic good governance. A mediation process is successful when it results in long-term peace and security with no recurrence of conflicts in the post-mediation phases. The recurrence of conflicts in Africa following mediation has transformed the continent into a civil war battlefield. That is, political violence has returned in every state where a mediation process has been conducted and a peace agreement has been signed. After a failed mediation process, these forms of political violence ensue, trapping the continent in conflict. Collier and Sambanis (2002) coined the term ‘conflict trap’ to describe a situation in which a state experiences one civil war and has a high probability of experiencing additional episodes of political violence because of the mediation process.
To comprehend the current failures of international mediation theory in African conflicts, one needs to consider the high level of conflict outbreaks in post-mediation phase situations in Africa. Despite the use of international mediation and the signing of a peace treaty intended to end African conflicts, the recurrence of political violence is part of a more extensive bargaining process in some African states where mediation processes have taken place. The negotiated settlement does not address transparency and openness in how public institutions conduct public affairs, manage public resources, and ensure the realisation of human rights free of abuse and corruption, as well as the rule of law. These are the components of good governance, and the international mediation process cannot help the combatants achieve them. Owing to the persistence of the aforementioned issues, mediation processes only halt conflicts temporarily because combatants can agree on a ceasefire, one side suffers a temporary setback, or one or both sides become fatigued. However, none of these mediation processes have resulted in permanent conflict resolution. While peace treaties may be signed, political will and the capacity to implement them are frequently lacking (Adetula et al., 2018). Hence, numerous peace agreements to end hostilities never surpass the signature phase (Niyitunga, 2019). This is the case with international mediation practises in Africa, where many conflict-affected states see peace treaties signed, broken, and forgotten (Adetula et al., 2018), resulting in the recurrence of conflict.
There is the issue of the changing nature of war, which has caused the traditional international mediation process to fail to result in peace treaties that lead to Pax Africana. Poverty, inequality, pandemic disease, environmental breakdown and borders, terror attacks, and violent extremism remain today’s new wars or intra-conflicts. Extensive clandestine cross-border military operations and various forms of proximate support from neighbouring countries characterise these new wars. Locally, these new wars have resulted in fierce resource competition between the haves and have-nots, pastoralists and farmers. The cases of Kenya in its coastal and northern regions and the conflicts in the Sahel countries demonstrate that inequality and high levels of competition continue to be sources of inter-communal conflict. The international mediation process overlooks the nature and causes of these new wars. For example, conflict-affected African states have been trapped in the post-mediation phase for decades. Peace treaties were reached due to the current international mediation process failing to address issues of inequity. In the post-mediation phase, there is a close relationship between inequality and conflict recurrence. Thus, international mediation theory can use 4IR technologies during either phase. In the pre-mediation phase, these technologies can collect vast amounts of information on peace and conflict that mediators can use to comprehend conflicts and their causes. They can gather information on cultural interests and enable awareness that prevents conflict recurrence through information or positive messaging transfer in the post-mediation phase. During the mediation phase, these technologies can help collect information from the public via online messages that convey citizens’ negotiating interests. For instance, using mobile phones and social media is advantageous during an international mediation process because citizens and civil society groups can use them to disseminate information between citizens and monitor the mediation’s progress. This would prevent the common practice of conflict parties brokering peace agreements that benefit themselves at the expense of local citizens. In addition, 4IR technologies can be utilised in the pre-mediation phase to survey and monitor risk in conflict-affected or conflict-prone areas, allowing the deployment of mediators to assist parties in resolving their conflicts through mediation. This means that these technologies can generate a large amount of data in real time, which can provide international mediators and peace practitioners with a clear picture of the situation on the ground (Corlazzoli & Department for International Development, 2014; Berman et al., 2018; Muggah & Diniz, 2013). In the post-mediation phases, the 4IR technologies are helpful and effective for combating insurgencies in conflict-affected states.