A Comparative Study on World-Wide Carbon Emission Convergence: An Empirical Analysis

Introduction

Climate change is a serious and urgent issue. The Earth’s climate is changing, and the scientific consensus is not only that human activities have contributed to it significantly, but that the change is far more rapid and dangerous than thought earlier (IPCC 2007). The main factor in anthropogenic climate change is the increase in the concentration of carbon in the atmosphere over time. This increased concentration has been caused by the emission of GHGs as a result of economic activities, including energy, industry, transport, and land use, many of which rely upon fossil fuels. The most important GHG, carbon dioxide (CO2), currently constitutes 77 per cent of the global warming potential. Other contributors are methane (from agricultural sources), and land use change such as deforestation. Concentration level has increased because emissions during the last two centuries were in excess of what could be absorbed, and the excess GHGs began to accumulate in the atmosphere. The concentration of CO2 alone has increased by some 100 ppm over this period. Current global emissions contribute another 2-3 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2) GHGs per year. Hence, climate change has become a significant and complex challenge to policy makers. Economic analysis is crucial to the climate policy debate. Continued research into climate change and appropriate policy action is necessary if governments are going to adopt an efficient and effective response. Contraction and Convergence (C&C) is a proposed global framework for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to combat climate change. Conceived by the Global Commons Institute [GCI] in the early 1990s, the Contraction and Convergence strategy consists of reducing overall emissions of greenhouse gases to a safe level (contraction), resulting from every country bringing its emissions per capita to a level which is equal for all countries (convergence). It is intended to form the basis of an international agreement which will reduce carbon dioxide emissions to avoid dangerous climate change, carbon dioxide being the gas that is primarily responsible for changes in the greenhouse effect on Earth. It is expressed as a simple mathematical formula. This formula can be used as a way for the world to stabilize carbon levels at any level. Advocates of Contraction and Convergence stress that negotiations at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC] are governed sequentially by the 'objective' of the UNFCCC [safe and stable GHG concentration in the global atmosphere] followed by its organising principles ['precaution' and 'equity']. C&C is widely cited and supported.