In spite of the enormous efforts and implementation of the masterplans for the development of rural areas in Iran, the majority face economic, social, and ecological challenges that jeopardize their future, particularly where tourism has been prescribed as a panacea. Among those, Kandovan, known as the only inhabited rocky village in the world that attracts half a million visitors, annually entails excessive consideration and as a case embraces imperative contributions to the sustainability-future research domain. This study aims to contribute to an enhanced understanding of the nexus between “sustainable development” and the “future” in tourist destinations. Through the analysis of the secondary data, this study takes a scenario-planning approach and discusses the current social, environmental, and economic themes: the foundation of four potential future scenarios. The underpinned framework in the context of Kandovan offers noteworthy implications both in theory and practice of tourism by proposing an area-based planning model according to the emerged alternative scenario.
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Tourism is considered as a potential future industry for particular communities, and it can serve different purposes in the contradictions between the use and conservation of natural resources (Moss, 2006). There has been tremendous global growth in nature-based, culture-based and heritage-based tourism (Balmford et al., 2009), particularly in small-scale rural communities where it is prescribed as a remedy to overcome the problem of centralization and regionalization and to achieve sustainable development (Perlik, 2006). The future is inherently medial in sustainability theory (Cameron & Potvin, 2016) as it refers to the long-term viability and integrity of human societies and natural systems to meet both the needs of the present and future generations (Brundtland, 1987).
However, as emphasized by Swart et al. (2004), the fundamental challenge in pursuing this sustainability is the search for potential future pathways that are viable under the influential circumstances of uncertainty, complexity and human choices. This is a process that can be explored via the scenario analysis approach, which refers to plausible alternative futures that result from the integration of trends in stimulating the relevant factors and policies (Yeoman et al., 2015). Although various development programs have been implemented at local level, majority of the rural areas in Iran are facing different ecological, physical and socio-economic challenges (Imani et al., 2017) where the issues of poverty, inequality, population migration, educational deficits and vulnerability against natural risks are evident in such areas (Maleki & Bigdeli Rad, 2017). This paper aims to present alternative future scenarios for one of the world’s most unique and novel rural destinations, the Kandovan village, a national heritage archaeological tourism site in Eastern Azerbaijan province, Iran (Yahyavi & Shaghaghi, 2012) (Figure 1). Nowadays, this authentic stone village is a very popular tourist destination and attracts thousands of visitors annually (420,000 tourists in 2012 (Mohammadi, 2012), to experience a mixture of cultural and natural heritage that has a history of human habitation dating back more than 800 years (Fam & Keshavarz, 2015). In 5th of May 1997, Kandovan village was inscribed on the National Heritage List (reference number: 1857) (Irna, 2017). This destination is also endeavoring to share its fascination with a greater number of people worldwide, and to be included on the UNESCO World Heritage List; however, there are some obstacles which the major one is to reclaim its authenticity. Studies of this tourist destination, however, have reported serious environmental hazards and conservation issues (Eftekhari et al., 2011; Fam & Keshavarz, 2015; Razani et al., 2013), which indicate a lack of attention to these topics. As declared in “Our Common Future” document (WCED, 1987) sustainable development refers to “satisfying the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs” (WCED, 1987, ch 2, sec. 1, para. 1). Considering the unique archaeological characteristics of the study case at one hand and the various ecological risks this destination experiences on the other which endangers the sustainable development and the future of the site, the current study attempts to appraise the key trends of sustainability disposition in Kandovan village and to provide potential future visions through scenario planning approach. To better grasp the complexity of the future the scenario planning was recommended as a suitable approach (Yeoman et al., 2105). This is a timely discussion because the number of visitors to this village has been increasing that this has exacerbated the concerns of the local indigenous’ socio-economic challenges and the environmental conservation difficulties. It also contributes to the extension of scenario planning approach (Yeoman, 2012a) to the study of heritage tourism and sustainable development in rural destinations in developing countries. Potential future pathways that are viable under the influential circumstances of uncertainty, complexity and human choices can be explored via the scenario analysis approach, which refers to plausible alternative futures that result from the integration of trends in stimulating the relevant factors and policies (Yeoman et al., 2015).