A Genetic Algorithm-Based Multivariate Grey Model in Housing Demand Forecast in Turkey

Abstract

Housing sector is commonly considered as a very strong economic industry in terms of both its contribution to creating employment and its impact on other associated sectors. By means of its featured characteristics, the sector also plays an important role on economic growth and development of emerging countries. In this respect, any evidence that determines factors affecting housing investments and future demand behavior may be remarkably valuable for monitoring possible future excess supply and deficits. This chapter attempts to determine factors affecting housing demand in Turkey during a sample period of 2003-2011 using a genetic algorithm-based multivariate grey model. Housing demand forecasts are also employed until the year 2020. Results reveal that several factors including M2 money supply, consumer price index and urbanization rate have an impact on housing demand. According to housing demand forecasts, a significant housing demand increase is expected in Turkey.