A Suggestion for Energy Policy Planning System Dynamics

A Suggestion for Energy Policy Planning System Dynamics

Arzu Eren Şenaras (Uludag Unıversıty, Turkey)
Copyright: © 2018 |Pages: 24
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-5225-3935-3.ch019

Abstract

The system dynamics approach was developed by Jay Forrester from MIT during 1950s to analyze the complex behavior in administration with computer simulation in social sciences. System dynamics is a form of systems approach as a methodology to understand the dynamic behavior of complex systems. The basis of system dynamics is to understand how system structures cause system behavior and system events. System thinking and system dynamics provide computer technology and conceptual and numerical modeling techniques that could help explain the dynamics and forces underlying the complexity and change in business, politics, socio-economic, and environmental systems. System dynamics, policy analysis, and design are used for learning and decision making.
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A Short Literature Review

A short literature review concerning about developing energy policy can be listed as below:

Fazeli and Davidsdottir (2015), developed a dynamic building stock model, which captures the effects of building aging on total energy consumption for space heating demand. They studied the behavioral dynamics by focusing on the key processes affecting the implementation of retrofitting measures.

Vilchez et.al.(2015), developed a model integrating discrete choice and accounting frameworks. The developed System Dynamics model is applied to examine alternative policies and to estimate energy use and emissions in each of the markets under various scenarios.

Batinge (2015), developed to create a vivid understanding of the complex feedback loops within the electricity sector. The results present an outlook of the electricity situation in Ghana. Policies discussed include the ideal investment pathways for sustainable electricity supply in the future.

Key Terms in this Chapter

System Dynamics: The basis of system dynamics is to understand how system structures cause system behavior and system events.

Decision Functions: States of the policy that determine how to convert available information in stock into a decision.

Flow: It is defined as the increase or decrease in the unit time interval in stocks and denoted by f( t ).

Delays: A characteristic of dynamic systems and affect both material and information flow.

Material Delays: In this structure, the material moves forward from the beginning to the end of the pipeline without any change during a period of time, similar to a water running through a pipeline.

Material Flow: It includes stocks and flow rates of physical goods such as raw materials, inventories in the process, or finished goods.

Stocks: The present values of the variables that are formed by the accumulated difference between the inflow and outflow.

System Dynamic Language: This language consists of four components: stocks, flows, decision functions, and information flow.

Information Flow: Creation, control, and distribution of information is the most significant task of business management. It might be difficult to model the information properly in the business process.

Information Delay: They are usually caused by the transfer of information and the delay in the process of taking an action after the information is received. Information delays could occur in vertical hierarchical administrations.

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