The Government of the Commonwealth of Dominica has joined with the international community to pursue the reduction in its country's GHG emissions. Its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) highlighted its intention to reduce emissions in the energy sector by 98.6%; the transport sector by 16.9%; the commercial, residential, agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector by 8.1%; and the solid waste sector by 78.6%. The achievement of the NDCs is conditional upon the country receiving timely access to international climate change financing, technology development, and capacity building support. However, climate finance is shrouded with bureaucracy and is very difficult for developing countries to access. This study assesses the economic impacts of implementing the NDCs in Dominica. It quantifies the cost of implementing the NDCs in the identified sectors, identifies the risks and critical factors to be considered in the implementation of the NDCs, and provides recommendations for the mobilization of finance to facilitate the NDCs implementation.
TopIntroduction
The twenty-first Conference of the Parties (COP 21) held in 2015, was a landmark achievement in the international climate change negotiations. 195 Country Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed to adopt a common position to take collective action to limit temperature rise to well below 20C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.50C by the end of the century.
The Paris Agreement arising out of the COP 21, seeks to catalyze global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions through a system of nationally determined country-level emissions reduction targets, also referred to as the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
The present NDCs submitted by countries are insufficient to achieve the 20C limit on global temperature rise. The current NDCs are estimated to collectively result in a global temperature rise ranging between 2.90C to 3.40C by 2100. Achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals will require an emissions peak as soon as possible, followed by sharp reductions in GHG emissions.
All countries are expected to review their progress in achieving their NDCs, a process referred to as the Global Stocktake, and submit increasingly ambitious NDCs. This process is supposed to occur every 5 years, with the first opportunity to do so was officially scheduled for 2020.
The Commonwealth of Dominica, the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Member State that is situated 150 N and 610W and is bordered by the French territories of Guadeloupe and Martinique, also submitted NDCs to the UNFCCC. Its NDCs outlines the government’s intention to progressively reduce total gross greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions below 2014 levels at the following reduction rates: 17.9% by 2020; 39.2% by 2025; and 44.7% by 2030 (UNFCCC 2015b). By 2030, the country intends to achieve the reduction in total emission per sector as follows:
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energy industries – 98.6% (principally from harnessing of geothermal resources);
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transport – 16.9%;
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manufacturing and construction – 8.8%;
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commercial/institutional, residential, agriculture, forestry, fishing – 8.1%; and
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solid waste – 78.6%.
As the first Global Stocktake period has arrived, several countries are considering the review of the NDCs with a view for updating to one that reflects raised mitigation and adaptation ambition. It is expected that the implementation of the NDCs will impact many sectors of Dominica’s economy. However, the full extent of the impact is presently unknown.
The main objective of this study is to assess the economic impacts of implementing the NDCs in Dominica. More specifically, this study seeks to undertake the following:
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quantify the cost of implementing the NDCs in various sectors;
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identify the risks associated with achieving the NDC targets; and
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provide recommendations for the mobilization of finance to facilitate the NDCs implementation.
The rest of this study is structured as follows. The second section reviews the literature on the evolution of the climate change policy action to the development of NDCs. The third section reviews the climate change problem in Dominica. The fourth section explains the methodology for estimating the costs and the economic impact of implanting the NDCs. The fifth section will present the results. The sixth section provides a discussion about the critical factors and risks that should be considered in the implementation of the NDCs. The seventh section considers the perspective of the residents. The eighth section furnishes some policy recommendations to mobilize finance and facilitate the implementation of the NDCs. The seventh section concludes this study.
TopLiterature Review On The Nationally Determined Contributions
In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its first assessment report, which recognized that human-induced climate change was a real threat to countries and that international cooperation to tackle its consequences. This report influenced 166 countries to meet in 1992 to form the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as the first international treaty and organization to address climate change (Schipper 2006; Bulkely & Newell 2015; UNFCCC 2015a).