Analysis of Possible Future Global Scenarios in the Field of Cyber Warfare: National Cyber Defense and Cyber Attack Capabilities

Analysis of Possible Future Global Scenarios in the Field of Cyber Warfare: National Cyber Defense and Cyber Attack Capabilities

Flavia Zappa Leccisotti (Security Brokers SCpA, Italy), Raoul Chiesa (Security Brokers SCpA, Italy) and Daniele De Nicolo (Security Brokers SCpA, Italy)
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-4666-8793-6.ch009


At a global level, various risks have increased due to the intensification of globalization, and in this scenario Cybercrime is becoming a more important and dangerous threat. When discussing about Cyber Space threats, it is not an issue if critical national infrastructures, private companies and private citizens will be violated, but rather when it will take place, when it is realized that this has happened, and which is the extent of the attack. Through the collection and analysis of open source documents, institutional organizations, think tanks, academic and experts' papers, the goal of this chapter is to highlight and understand what and how it is changing, if new scenarios will take place on the international cyber chessboard, and which dynamics will regulate the new threats that we must prepare to fight or, at least, mitigate.
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Nearly after two years from the beginning of the study about Cyber Warfare, Cyber Defense and Cyber Attack doctrines and strategies of National States by Flavia Zappa, is aimed to produce a different study, aiming to analyze the evolution of those doctrines and strategies, and assuming future scenarios.

The motivation beyond the rise on the analysis spectrum is somehow very simple: “Nation-State driven” Cyber Attacks can be nowadays regularly found on a global scale, no matter if they are officially endorsed, sponsored or “tolerated” by a National State. Someone spoken about a new Cold War, which has become an “Information War”, refreshing the famous motto “Information is the power” and adapting it to those evolutions and technologies of the 21st Century.

Key Terms in this Chapter

Malware: Short for malicious software, is any software used to disrupt computer operation, gather sensitive information, or gain access to private computer systems. It can appear in the form of executable code, scripts, active content, and other software.

Broadband: In telecommunications, broadband is wide bandwidth data transmission with an ability to simultaneously transport multiple signals and traffic types.

International Telecommunication Union (ITU): (Originally the International Telegraph Union) is a specialized agency of the United Nations (UN) that is responsible for issues that concern information and communication technologies.

Shanghai Cooperation Organization or SCO or Shanghai Pact: A Eurasian political, economic and military organization which was founded in 2001 in Shanghai by the leaders of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Except for Uzbekistan, the other countries had been members of the Shanghai Five, founded in 1996; after the inclusion of Uzbekistan in 2001, the members renamed the organization.

Risk Management: Risk management is the identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks (defined in ISO 31000 as the effect of uncertainty on objectives) followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities.

Crisis Management: Crisis management is the process by which an organization deals with a major event that threatens to harm the organization, its stakeholders, or the general public. The study of crisis management originated with the large-scale industrial and environmental disasters in the 1980s.

Governance: Refers to “all processes of governing, whether undertaken by a government, market or network, whether over a family, tribe, formal or informal organization or territory and whether through laws, norms, power or language.” It relates to “the processes of interaction and decision-making among the actors involved in a collective problem that lead to the creation, reinforcement, or reproduction of social norms and institutions.

Stuxnet: A computer worm that was discovered in June 2010. It was designed to attack industrial programmable logic controllers (PLCs).

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