Analyzing the Disruptive Potential in the Telecommunications Industry

Abstract

This chapter covers an important issue in the area of telecommunications planning and technology management: The ex ante analysis of potential disruptive technologies. Due to the convergence of IT and telecommunications, an ever-growing onslaught of emerging technologies and new entrants with new business models are starting to eat up the incumbent’s revenues, profits, and market shares. The theory of disruptive technology (Christensen, 1997; Christensen & Raynor, 2003) helps managers, policy-makers and analysts to analyze emerging technologies, new business models, and new entrants in order to be prepared in advance, providing appropriate ways to react in a timely fashion to innovation- based opportunities or threats. In this chapter the theory of disruptive technology, the concept of disruptive potential and a method for applying this concept in a telecommunications planning and technology management context is presented. Finally, some examples of potential disruptive technologies in telecommunication which were analyzed ex ante are introduced with specific emphasis placed on the WLAN-technology.