Abstract
Numerous studies on climate change have been conducted in different parts of the world, and many studies have examined the effect of changes in meteorological parameters on the performance of the energy sector. In this study, using the results of climate change calculations in the provinces of Iran, which are obtained from the microscale exponential method with a neural network, its effect on the performance of the energy production sector in the country's power plants in the next decade has been investigated. Calculations show that, on average, the efficiency of gas power plants decreases by about 0.6% for every 1oC increase in temperature. Also, the efficiency of heating and combined power plants decreases by about 0.5 and 0.4% on average. This chapter is aimed to use the P-index reliability index to study the climate change impacts on the thermal power plant performance.
TopIntroduction
Energy and environmental issues have become one of the major issues today, to which many countries pay special attention. Since the protection of the environment is essential for the continuation of a healthier life and survival requires continuous energy consumption, it is necessary always to study energy production and its adverse effects on the environment to find better solutions for degradation as little as possible. Presented the environment as a result of dynamic earth processes or external factors such as changes in the intensity of sunlight or human activities that lead to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, climate change occurs globally and has significant effects on countries(Arnell, 1998). Climate change causes changes in temperature and rainfall time patterns and changes in rainfall (Boadi & Owusu, 2019). To study climate systems globally, models called general circulation models (GCM) are used. These models mathematically simulate the physical behavior of the Earth, atmosphere, and ocean systems (Berger et al., 2014). Crook et al. (2011) used a leading artificial neural network model and an error propagation algorithm with a sigmoid transfer function to predict future wind speeds for three regions in the United States (Texas, California, and Carolina). The results show a decrease in wind speed of 0.4 and 0.8% in the two study points and an increase of 2.6% in one of the study points on an annual scale. Chuang & Sue (2005) also compared the performance of the SDSM model and the artificial neural network (TLFN) for exponential microscale temperature and large-scale precipitation of the HadCM3 model in the Karkheh catchment in western Iran.
On the other hand, temperature changes have a direct effect on energy production performance. The output of the gas turbine and its efficiency are a function of ambient air temperature (Durmayaz & Sogut, 2006). In the studies that have been done, almost similar results have been obtained. For example, it has been reported that in the gas turbine type, the output power decreases by 5 to 10% for every 10 degrees increase in temperature above 15 °C. Fant et al. (2016) studied the impacts of increasing the ambient temperature by 1°C, which caused a 1% reduction in the gas turbine capacity. In a steam power plant, the boiler is the main cause of exergy destruction in the power plant, and in return for increasing the ambient temperature up to 5 °C at constant relative humidity, the thermal efficiency decreases by 2.35%, and the exergy efficiency of the power plant decreases by 8.2% (Fant, 2016). For every 1-degree increase in temperature, the efficiency of the steam power plant decreases by about 0.45%.
Some researchers have concluded that with increasing ambient temperature per 1°C in a 50 MW combined cycle power plant, the capacity of the combined cycle power plant decreases by about 0.5%. (Gaetani et al., 2014). Also, Ibrahim et al. (2014), in their study on a 16.6 MW gas turbine, showed that with decreasing the temperature from 34.2 to 15 °C, the average output of the power plant increases by more than 11.3%. For each degree of increase in ambient temperature, the gas turbine power output will decrease by 0.64%. By studying a gas turbine and its combined cycle with a capacity of about 110 MW and reducing the temperature from 35 to 20 ° C, it was shown that the output power of the gas turbine is about 10.6%, and the output power of the combined cycle is increased about 6.24%(Kaygusuz, 2003). For every 1 degree of temperature decrease, the efficiency of the gas turbine increases by about 0.61% and the combined cycle efficiency by about 0.41% in a 110 MW power plant. Also, another study showed that the average power output of the power plant per 1oC increase in inlet temperature decreases by 0.56%, and output power increases by 10% in cold humidity and 18% in hot humidity (Fant, 2016). This study aims to determine the effect of climate change (specifical temperature) on the performance of Iran’s thermal power plants in 2050.
Key Terms in this Chapter
Globalization: Globalization is the interaction and integration of people, companies, and governments around the world. Globalization has grown due to the advancement of communication and transportation technology. Increasing global interaction leads to the growth of international trade, ideas, and culture. Globalization is primarily an economic process in the form of economic interaction that is associated with cultural and social aspects. Nevertheless, conflict and diplomacy have always been part of the history of globalization (especially modern globalization).
Climate Change: Climate change refers to any change in climate that lasts longer than individual climatic events, while climate change refers only to those changes that last for longer periods, typically decades or longer. In addition to the general meaning that “climate change” may have in any period, the use of the term is more common about the current climate change that is taking place. Since the Industrial Revolution, the climate has been increasingly influenced by human activities that have caused global warming and climate change.
Sustainable Architecture: Green Architecture or sustainable architecture is one of the new trends and approaches to architecture that has attracted the attention of many contemporary designers and architects around the world in recent years. This architecture, which arises from the concepts of sustainable development, seeks to adapt and harmonize with the environment is one of the basic human needs in today’s world. Creating green buildings aims to improve the climate, prevent the loss of energy used for cooling and heating, and prevent the negative effects of construction on the environment.
Waste Management: It is a set of activities and measures necessary for waste management from production to its final disposal. These activities include collecting, transferring, and disposal of waste and monitoring the implementation of waste management laws.
Marxian Economics: The school of economics is based on the work of Karl Marx, in which labor creates and grows capital in the process of capital accumulation. The theory holds that the value of goods and services includes not only the cost of labor (wages) and the cost of capital (machinery, tools, and materials), but that there is also surplus labor in the value of a commodity, and that labor is the source of labor. Profit becomes capitalist. This school takes a critical look at the classical approach based on Adam Smith’s theory of productivity and wages.
Water Resources Management: Water resources management is an activity in planning, development, distribution, and management of optimal use of water resources. Water resources management is a sub-set of water cycle management.
Green Economy: A green economy emerges in the shadow of advanced human life and social justice while minimizing environmental hazards and damage. A green economy is an economy or economic development based on sustainable development and knowledge of the local economy.