Brexit Dilemma for the UK and the European Union: Expectations, Feared Scenarios, and Possible Effects

Brexit Dilemma for the UK and the European Union: Expectations, Feared Scenarios, and Possible Effects

Naib Alakbarov (Usak University, Turkey) and Utku Utkulu (Dokuz Eylül University, Turkey)
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-7998-1188-6.ch010

Abstract

On June 23, 2016, a referendum took place in the UK with 51.89% of voters voting in favor of the UK's exit from the EU. On March 29, 2017, British Prime Minister Theresa May formally notified the European Council of the intention of the UK to leave the EU in accordance with Article 50 of the EU Treaty. With this declaration of withdrawal, a period of two years contractually stipulated under Article 50 of the EU Treaty for the UK and the other EU-27 states has begun to negotiate an agreement on the details of withdrawal. But it was clear the negotiation process would be difficult because it is expected the UK leaving the EU will have negative effects on both. The postponement of the period of Brexit, which should have been officially realized on March 29, 2019, indicates that both parties want to avoid the unintentional Brexit. This chapter details the Brexit process. The possible effects of Brexit on both sides are investigated and different expectations of the parties from the Brexit process are explained.
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Why Did A Part Of The British Want To Stay In The Eu?

The advocates of Britain's EU membership argue above all about the economic benefits that Britain derives from EU membership. However, they also cite security policy and foreign policy arguments (Brexit - Großbritannien verlässt die EU, n.d.).

Economy: EU advocates say that, while Britain is one of the EU's net payers, it does get back much of the invested money - by facilitating trade with other EU member states. In the UK, this would mean lower prices as well as higher investments and the creation of additional jobs.

EU advocates believe that three million jobs in the UK are linked to EU trade. Every day, investors from EU countries invest 66 million pounds sterling (just under 84 million euros) in the UK. The import of cheap goods from the EU would ensure that every Briton could save 350 pounds (445 euros) per year.

Immigration: EU advocates argue that the number of EU immigrants would not automatically decline. As an example, they cite Norway and Switzerland, which are not EU members, but still have a significant number of EU immigrants. (Explanation: Norway is part of the European Economic Area, which governs the free movement of persons, and similar treaties exist between the EU and Switzerland.)

World-Political Validity: the EU supporters say that the UK, in conjunction with the other EU states, can better express its positions than outside the EU.

Labor Market: EU advocates point out that many EU regulations protect workers' rights. For example, EU law guarantees paid maternity leave and the rights of women at work.

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Why Britain Voted To Leave The European Union?

Here are the reasons why some Britons want to get out of the EU (Schmidt, 2016).

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