Abstract
Intelligence analysts are a task force of experts in the field of politics, economics, technology, military, and terrorism analysis. They possess the knowledge, sufficient capacity for imagination, and creativity to relate data predict events. The intelligence approach (basically) tries to reduce the uncertainty of this analysis to forecast the future without being privy to alternatives in the minds of policy decision makers. This chapter intends to describe a new interpretative socio-cognitive paradigm, Orientism, to understand and manage the fluid nature of knowledge, but at the same time to seize and manage the unpredictability and risks of dynamics of risk decision management in relationships complex environment. The new elements are five key factors and criteria to direct and motivate people in the choosing process and following 10 different and key relationships between them.
TopIntroduction
A long tradition of studies analyzed the risk components (i.e. logical-probabilistic, cognitive, regulatory, socio-systemic, and socio-cultural), inherent in a decision-making process. The multiple variables, able to cause an unstable condition of unpredictability in a decision-making process, found a catalytic function of management in the information factor, or factor 'k', in the regulatory role of external agents (social environment) and the cooperation between action makers.
Worldwide Analysts have common problems and similar challenges, such as:
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Understanding and interpretation of information by management of intelligence
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Competition with media and other information brokers who communicate and disseminate information on world events instantaneously
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Overabundance of information
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Level of knowledge and application of technical analysis, scientific methodologies, tools, techniques, for different contexts, “clients” and intelligence products
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The effective use of the analysis in the decision-making process
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Intelligence estimable to design future developments, allowing the development of strategic plans
Richard Betts (2007) has made the greatest contributions to shifting the evaluative metric from the unattainable ideal of accuracy to something more realistic with his argument that intelligence failures, consisting of either inaccuracy or surprise, are inevitable. Betts’ argument is a sophisticated one which acknowledges that
The Analyst is a real risk manager that establishes proceedings towards analysis, design, development, and evaluation of decision-making effects. The paradigm requires a complex decision screenplay (scenario): a macro project (about operation modes), a micro project (about contents and activities types), and scripts of activity sequences.
He designs in phases and dynamic structures, deciding on
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Declarative knowledge, which describes “how things are”, in a format that may be manipulated, decomposed and analyzed by its reasoners. Declarative knowledge tends to be flexible and broadly applicable
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Procedural knowledge, is related to the procedure how to perform actions. Procedural knowledge tends to be more fluent and automatic
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Propositional thoughts, which translates experience into knowledge semantics
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Mental images, which can recognize and identify the information retained. It allows “factual knowledge”, an important skill area for a self-managing set of attitudes and behaviors
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Narrative thought, able to interpret own experience, comparing it with the experience of others.
State-of-the-art ICT-enabled knowledge management environments provide an advanced experience where team-works are lead figures, and their human knowledge behaviors, cognitive preferences, and human characteristics are recognized, considered, monitored, recorded, and modeled. This facilitates the capability to personalize, adapt, and improve the knowledge management processes in tune with individual preferences, characteristics, and preferred learning styles/habits.
Personal Knowledge Management (PKM) is an open question about what is the PKM roles and values in different individual, organization, and social context. The main related literature by different scholars provides insight into the definition and nature of PKM. A valuable synthesis of the more significant designs is the conceptual model of PKM 2.0,
developed by Cheong & Tsui (2010). Authors reviewed the results of a global survey about the roles and values of the main PKM frameworks (Cheong&Tsui, 2010): from mere individual activities to outcome/impact-oriented; from information handling skills to personal competencies, sensemaking, and self-reflection; from individually focused to a community and social collaborative focused.
Key Terms in this Chapter
PENTHA Model: Is an ID Knowledge Design Model focused on designing the KM environment, defining the (didactical) rules for an Intelligent Tutoring System, facilitating person’s change and enhancement,
Intelligence Analyst: The professional is an intermediary between abstract knowledge and political action. He or she translates that information into a form which is both understandable and usable by the non-expert. Deference to the professional typically rests upon the presumption that compromise and negotiation, the hallmarks of political deliberation, have no significant impact on the manner by which professionals arrive at their conclusions. Rationality and objectivity are held to guide their analysis of information (Hastdet, 1987 AU24: The in-text citation "Hastdet, 1987" is not in the reference list. Please correct the citation, add the reference to the list, or delete the citation. ). Sometimes intelligence and intelligence analysis is ignored by decisionmakers, and sometimes intelligence—or intelligence analysis—is changed or distorted to be more consistent with (or in opposition to) the interpretation that the decisionmakers would prefer.
Orientism Management Framework: Is a new multi-dimensional KM approach to improve the people’s ability to manage decisions and own change of perspective, according to natural, social, artificial environments, in personalized multi-user dynamic, assigned value to multiple reference points and multi-interpreting paradigms.