In order to achieve this aim, methods and theoretical studies in the area of expert or decision support systems are used in the area of bird production. The investigation includes development of the methodology (approach and algorithms) for such systems and its testing on the level of modeling and data simulation.
Top1. Introduction To The Problem
Modern bird production requires application of modern approach and using effective methods and means for producing cheaper products and protein. One of the basic scientist tasks is to find as many effective conditions for increasing the quality of the production of the level of modern standards as possible. The aspiration is for observing the standards for ecologically clean production and preservation of the environment.
The effectiveness of the modern bird production is shown by the fact that the countries from the European Union have increased their production by 80% in the recent ten years. At the moment the main problems for the Bulgarian bird production are to preserve the current level and to gradually reach the European level of bird production (Ljakova, 2003). This is naturally related to the increasing funds for scientific needs, which are currently insufficient. For raising the bird production level to the modern European standards, it is necessary to apply modern technological and scientific approaches (Technical Documentation ISABROWN, 1995).
The aim of this research is to develop models and methodology for prognosis of the development of chickens and broilers (the growth curve) as well as production of eggs, which will help for rational nourishing and developing of the chickens of different breeds and obtaining more and better production. In order to achieve this aim methods and theoretical research in the area of expert or Decision Support Systems (DSS) can be used in the area of bird production (Pavlov, 2001; Ljakova, 2002).
The research is done for Shaver breed broilers and ISA-brown breed chickens (Technical Documentation ISABROWN, 1995). The period for development of the broilers is 0 to 6 weeks and for the chicken 0 to 32 weeks. For egg production the period of research is 16 to 76 weeks (divided in 16 intervals).
The task includes making prognosis for the change of the weight for the next 3 weeks after the last measurement, under the initial feeding conditions. The prognosis is based on the particular curve for measurement of the mean weight of the population until the moment. The same is valid for the percent of the laying hens per day in the considered interval of time, with regard to the production of eggs. In the technical documentation concerning laying hens of the breed ISA-brown and broilers of the breed Shaver, data of the optimal intervals in which considered parameters can take values in the different periods of development are given (Technical Documentation ISABROWN, 1995).
It would be very perspective for the modern bird breeding to create information systems, which can not only prognosticate for the forthcoming period based on obtained data but also give advice to the bird breeder for control of the observed processes (Ljakova, 2002, 2003, 2005; Pavlov, 2001). The task also includes development of the methodology (approach and algorithms) for such systems and its testing on the level of modeling and data simulation. For this purpose, methods for processing of expert information are included and their estimating capabilities for the light program influence over the egg production have been demonstrated.