Dynamic Travel Time Estimation Techniques for Urban Freight Transportation Networks Using Historical and Real-Time Data

Dynamic Travel Time Estimation Techniques for Urban Freight Transportation Networks Using Historical and Real-Time Data

Vasileios Zeimpekis (University of the Aegean, Greece)
Copyright: © 2011 |Pages: 22
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-61520-633-9.ch012

Abstract

Effective travel time prediction is of great importance for efficient real-time management of freight deliveries, especially in urban networks. This is due to the need for dynamic handling of unexpected events, which is an important factor for successful completion of a delivery schedule in a predefined time period. This chapter discusses the prediction results generated by two travel time estimation methods that use historical and real-time data respectively. The first method follows the k-nn model, which relies on the non-parametric regression method, whereas the second one relies on an interpolation scheme which is employed during the transmission of real-time traffic data in fixed intervals. The study focuses on exploring the interaction of factors that affect prediction accuracy by modelling both prediction methods. The data employed are provided by real-life scenarios of a freight carrier and the experiments follow a 2-level full factorial design approach.
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Background

Travel time can be defined as the total time required for a vehicle to travel from one point to another over a specified route under prevailing conditions. Its calculation depends on vehicle speed, traffic flow and occupancy, which are highly sensitive to weather conditions and traffic incidents (Park et al., 1998). Nonetheless, daily, weekly and seasonal patterns can be still observed at large scale. For instance, daily patterns distinguish rush hour and late night traffic, weekly patterns distinguish weekday and weekend traffic, while seasonal patterns distinguish winter and summer traffic. It has been increasingly recognized (Smith and Demetsky, 1996; Park et al., 1998; Chien & Kuchipudi, 2003; Stathopoulos & Karlaftis 2003) that for many transportation applications, estimates of the mean and variance of travel times affect the accuracy of prediction significantly.

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