Fuzzy Time Series: An Application in E-Commerce

Fuzzy Time Series: An Application in E-Commerce

Ali Karasan (Yıldız Technical University, Turkey), İsmail Sevim (Yıldız Technical University, Turkey) and Melih Çinar (Yıldız Technical University, Turkey)
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-5225-5187-4.ch010
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Abstract

In this chapter, we are planning to make a comparison between conventional Time Series Models and Fuzzy Time Series Models by an application in an e-commerce company. Future sales of furniture will be predicted. The performance of different models and forecasting periods are going to be analyzed to discuss advantages and disadvantages of each method. MAE is chosen as performance indicators of each model and forecasting period combination. As a conclusion to this chapter, generic strategies for prediction in an e-commerce company will be formulated in consideration of these indicators.
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2. Digital Marketing

The Digital Marketing Institution’s (DMI) definition for digital marketing is “The use of digital technologies to create an integrated, targeted and measurable communication which helps to acquire and retain customers while building deeper relationships with them”.

Digital Marketing’s definition for digital marketing is “Digital Marketing is a sub-branch of traditional Marketing and uses modern digital channels for the placement of products e.g. downloadable music, and primarily for communicating with stakeholders e.g. customers and investors about the brand, products, and business progress” (Royle & Laing, 2014).

The concepts “digital marketing” and “e-commerce” are often misused interchangeably. The synonyms to digital marketing are e-marketing, online marketing, or web-marketing and it is related to e-commerce in that manner digital marketing is the tool supporting e-commerce process with supplementary ways such as email marketing, search engine marketing, and social media marketing. Section 6 introduces methods that what we are going to use and includes Singh’s method.

Some areas of digital marketing can be sorted as below:

  • Advanced Search Engine Optimization (SEO),

  • Advertising Support,

  • Brand Management,

  • Campaign Management,

  • Competition Tracking,

  • Digital Public Relations,

  • E-Commerce,

  • Event Management,

  • Export Marketing,

  • Impact Analysis,

  • Mobile Marketing,

  • Social Media Management,

  • Training,

  • Web Analytics, and

  • Web Content.

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3. Forecasting

Before we start an extent properties and components of time series and fuzzy time series, we mention forecasting briefly with a list of characteristics’ that a decision maker must understand the plan and manage his or her decisions on it effectively for the company’s future. Forecasts are made to guide decisions in a variety of fields. This list is given for where forecasts are used and in return diversity of decisions aided by forecasts.

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