Global Electoral Politics

Introduction

Electoral politics impact global decision-making. Elections are the cornerstone to democratic politics as well as illiberal democratic politics; whether occurring in a democracy or an authoritarian society, electoral results are crucial to national governance. Dahl famously espoused in On Democracy (1998), democratic systems of governance feature a process of electing and replacing representatives at all levels via “free, fair, and frequent elections”; this has become an understood and commonly accepted characteristic of democracies. Even in authoritarian countries, such as Russia, the illusion of free participation in electoral politics remains critical. Titov explains that while liberal democracies receive political legitimacy via electoral politics, instead Russian “elections legitimize its political regime. In addition to international recognition, Russia’s post-Soviet transition from the Soviet one-party state produced a domestic consensus on the necessity of multi-candidate elections”, so while elections are conducted in Russia, they are controlled (by the ruling or prime minister’s party typically), and do not result in any form of governance change (2018). Thus, the form of electoral politics practiced in Russia is electoral authoritarianism. Essentially, elections in authoritarian states help to legitimize the rule of the regime, and assist citizens in feeling participatory within their political circumstance. Ali reiterates, “The regime views elections...as a carefully orchestrated event wrapped in a spectacle to reinforce the regime’s strength and test the oppositional waters” (Elrasam & Kurancid, 2018). Authoritarian elections are not about popular representation or accountability, rather elections are a sign of political and economic elites’ support for the existing regime; to the international observer these elections are blatantly undemocratic, yet have propped up some important regimes in political history.

It is critical to note the likelihood in the latter half of the 20^th and into the 21^st century, there have been numerous instances where a manufactured election (one that is predetermined by the regime, political elites; where citizen votes are theatre) has resulted in mass mobilizations and revolution in authoritarian countries on the edge of democratization. The international community has witnessed popular uprisings after instances of obvious electoral fraud to prop up a regime that the electorate is dissatisfied with; the Orange Revolution in Ukraine (2004); the Green (or popularly the Twitter) Revolution in Iran (2009); Russian protests over election returns (2011-2013); citizen responses in the 2018 Venezuelan presidential election, are just a few consequential mobilizations in the 21^st century due to contested electoral politics. As has been noted, elections have consequences, even if the election is just political theatre with predetermined results; the University of Oslo reported that fifty percent of regime breakdowns or “dictatorship deaths” occur during an election year (Knutsen & Nygard, 2015, P. 658).

The elections that occurred in 2022 and the 2023 Turkish election were in nation-states that can (and will) contribute to the reshaping of the global order and redefine international alliances, allegiances, and cooperation. The cases selected for deeper analysis in this chapter are critical elections in countries that have traditionally been strategically important allies for the West, especially the United States. The influx of questionably democratic leaders across the G20 countries will throw international cooperation and global priorities askew, as more leaders concerned with nationalist politics ascend to influential positions within the community, in organizations that still provide (some) order to the chaotic global environment. This chapter will focus on the multitude of consequential elections that were conducted throughout the international community in 2022, including Brazil, South Korea, France, and some impromptu electoral politics in the United Kingdom that will be of the utmost relevance to the future world order. The selected elections focus on both presidential and parliamentary politics to analyze the shift in attitude amongst a large swath of global citizens away from the postmodern global community that most have been reared in, and towards extreme nationalist (sometimes bordering on survivalist) politics with dangerous rhetoric propelled by the ubiquity of social media. The chapter will examine the elections that will be most impactful on global politics and international cooperation in the coming years; and will consider the shifting national ideologies and attitudes towards globalism.