Innovation in Scenario Building: Methodological Advancements and a Foresight Study of the Automotive Industry in Brazil

Innovation in Scenario Building: Methodological Advancements and a Foresight Study of the Automotive Industry in Brazil

Ariane Hinça Schneider (Industry Federation of Parana, Brazil), Laila Del Bem Seleme (Industry Federation of Parana, Brazil), Felipe Fontes Rodrigues (Federal University of Parana, Brazil), Marilia de Souza (Industry Federation of Paraná, Brazil) and Helio Gomes de Carvalho (Federal Technological University of Parana, Brazil)
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-61350-165-8.ch017
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Situated in Paraná state in southern Brazil, the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba (MRC) is home to an automotive sector which plays a major role in the local and national economy. In order to expand the development of the automotive sector and to create new local and worldwide opportunities, the Federation of Industries of Paraná (FIEP) developed and employed an innovative scenario building methodology to analyze the automotive industry’s potential for innovation and attendance of new market demands for 2020; which is Sector Foresight. Therefore, results allow the players to have a clearer managerial view of the industry’s possible future. This chapter seeks to publicize the experience as well as the results of this innovative project by focusing on the methodology and tools. Data sources included a review of the literature, document analysis, direct observation, semi-structured interviews and two rounds of questionnaires. This experience contributed to innovate the organizational and methodological processes of FIEP, and to improve the perspective of innovation in the automotive sector through a new approach to scenario building. Results also shown this methodology can be applied to other industries in future studies.
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Foresight And Scenario Building

Foresight is a methodology to collect and assess expert opinions about the future from the public and private sectors, universities and research centers, through a structured, interactive, participative, coordinated and synergistic process (Godet, 2001). It is used to build strategic views that can spur competitiveness and the development of a country, territory, company or public institution and as shown below, an industrial sector or a productive chain.

The University of Manchester defines foresight as a process of anticipation that assesses expert opinion to set priorities regarding certain assumptions about the future which are constrained by the external environment. These assumptions are limited to the development of interfaces with customers, suppliers and regulatory bodies, allowing foresight to give meaning to the environment by defining strategic views and reducing uncertainties.

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