Long-Term Forecasting of Tourism Festivals Post COVID-19

Long-Term Forecasting of Tourism Festivals Post COVID-19

Copyright: © 2023 |Pages: 19
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-6684-6356-7.ch016
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Forecasting festivals and destination tourism does not involve a secret recipe held by industry gatekeepers but is the applying tools, techniques, and systems. The significance that the COVID-19 pandemic contributes to the greater landscape of destination festivals is multifaceted as time progresses. Sales determinants are affected by a change in the labor force, logistic delays, health and safety concerns, and many factors still to be monitored and readapted through forecasting. Changes in social interactions, such as norms of personal space between family, friends, and strangers, have shifted, causing festival planners to be aware of directional signals that affect festival gatherings (McClure et al., 2020). Long-term forecasting tools assess the cultural shifts of consumer segmentation, revealing the adverse effects that COVID-19 has on demographic trends. Consequently, this chapter provides context while identifying forecasting methodologies and a framework for festivals and destination tourism post-COVID-19.
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Forecasting Sales Determinants

Examining the surrounding factors that affect the overall objective can aid in the long-term forecasting of future sales. Ancillary products and services, or the components that complement and support the execution and success of the main attraction, are also selling points to entice consumer sales. One of the vital ancillary components relative to festivals and tourism is lodging. Whereas traditionally, customers would stay in hotels or motels, forecasters now agree that the trend, or the transition in one direction, currently favors marketplaces that allow people to rent their properties short-term to consumers. However, the COVID-19 pandemic interrupted the trend and altered forecasters’ analyses:

Airbnb is a major player in short term-letting, listing more rooms than “Marriott International, Hilton Worldwide, Intercontinental Hotel Group, Wyndham Worldwide and Accor Hotel Group” (The Spaces, 2020). Airbnb has disrupted the hotel sector by facilitating trading of space between ordinary citizens (Zachet al., 2020). The question we ask is: has COVID-19 now disrupted the disruptor? We argue that this is indeed the case. (Dolnicar & Zare, 2020, p. 1)

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