Abstract
Human activity causes forest fires near the municipalities and different transportation structures. It is suggested to define linear objects that caused human activity and the similarity of the human activity spread and heat conduction applicable for numerical simulation. The numerical parameter of the human activity is the virtual (possible) number of forest fires (VNF) near the linear object. One-dimensional and two-dimensional numerical models to evaluate the distribution of human activity from linear objects are presented. It is possible to mark out following linear objects: country roads, motorways, and railways. Dependence of the VNF for typical data from linear objects of human activity changed through the time and space are obtained. Conclusions are drawn about the patterns of human activity from linear objects. The prospects of further development are described for this direction to design software for forest fire danger prediction.
TopIntroduction
Lightning activity and anthropogenic load are the primary reasons of forest fire initiation (Baranovskiy and Kuznetsov, 2017). The forest fires initiation caused by the lightning activity have been thoroughly examined (Baranovskiy et al., 2016; Baranovskiy and Kuznetsov, 2017; Preisler et al., 2004) by now compared to fires caused by anthropogenic load (Poulos et al., 2013; Amatulli et al., 2007). It should be noted that there are different approaches to assessing forest fire danger caused by anthropogenic load. As a rule, these are approaches that take into account statistics and the subsequent estimation of anthropogenic load as a stochastic process (Kurbatskiy, 1964; Bui et al., 2017). Moreover, the process of distribution (spread) of anthropogenic load is not modeled. An assessments of the expected number of fire incidents is made in a definite area (Kurbatskiy, 1964). It should be noted that sources of anthropogenic load of various types can be distinguished (Baranovskiy, 2006): point, linear, area. A linear source of anthropogenic load is considered in this paper. It should be noted that statistics on forest fires provide data on the number of registered forest fires only for a small number of forest areas of definite forestry. However, this does not mean that the level of anthropogenic load is zero on other sites. It should be noted the importance of works on the evaluation of the inter-fire intervals (Diez-Delgaro et al., 2004). As a result, it is necessary to develop mathematical models that would describe the processes of distribution (spread) of anthropogenic load on a controlled forest-covered territory taking into account it’s space-time dynamics.
Key Terms in this Chapter
Anthropogenic Load: Different human activities on forested territories lead to forest fire occurrence and characterized by presence of fire sources.
Monitoring: Monitoring refers to the periodic calculation of the parameters of forest fire danger with a portion of information available in real time.
Mathematical Simulation: The production of a computer model of forest fire conditions and prerequisites, especially for the purpose of study.
Forest Fire: Uncontrolled aerothermochemical phenomenon characterized by step-by-step mechanism which includes following stages: inert heating, moisture evaporation, high temperature terpens evaporation, dry organic matter pyrolysis, flammable combustion, and smoldering.
Prediction: Under the prediction of forest fires is the calculation of the parameters of forest fire danger with a certain projection in advance in order to have enough time to anticipate an emergency. The calculation in this case is carried out in a mode ahead of the real time of the development of the catastrophe - the occurrence of a forest fire.
Linear Source: A linear source of anthropogenic load means an extended linear object, from which the distribution of anthropogenic load is directed perpendicular to the depth of the forested area.
Virtual Number of Forest Fires: Possible (calculated) number of forest fire around source of anthropogenic load which equal to real number of forest fire in some selected sites.