Abstract
The chapter analyzed the concept of threat vs. risk, focusing on possible risks identification criteria and the main analytical approaches for risk management. It proposes an evaluation of sources as strength or weakness points, and application of cognitive biases in the intelligence analysis, and ethical issues in the intelligence activities such as politicization and secrecy issues. This research intends to put key questions and related criticalities of policy-making school, proposing a conceptual interpretation, possible strategies, and tools to manage, which can attempt to explain how intelligence analysis happens, which typically adopt company productions or cyclic modes of analysis, reducing them to a rational, objective process of steps and stages, especially to govern emergencies.
TopMain Measures Of Success For Intelligence Products
Worldwide Analysts have common problems and similar challenges (threats), such as:
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understanding and interpretation of information by management of intelligence
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competition with media and other information brokers who communicate and disseminate information on world events instantaneously
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overabundance of information
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level of knowledge and application of technical analysis, scientific methodologies, tools, techniques, for different contexts, “clients” and intelligence products
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the effective use of the analysis in the decision-making process
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intelligence estimable to design future developments, allowing the development of strategic plans
Figure 1.
Intelligence actions: Strength or Weakness points
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Reduction of Uncertainty: It is the first meaning why Intelligence exists as a decision-support
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Objectivity: Often the analysis activity is influenced by preconditions related to the environment and to the organization in which the analyst moves. Does it avoid mirror imaging, cultural bias, and prejudicial judgments? The analyst should nullify these influences. All judgments must be evaluated for the ossibility of deliberate distortions and manipulations due to Self-interest.
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Utility: By definition, the analyst's work should respond to the needs expressed by the ecision-making level, in a particular context. A useful methodological aid should help the analyst produce outputs related to “things necessary to know” compared to “useful things to know”.
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Reduction of Complexity: Within the sphere of institutional intelligence, the simplest methodologies to reduce complexity to easily manageable dimensions are those of ordered classification, chronologically, or by source or by an event in order to allow an easy comprehension of the relations of cause and effect.
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Effectiveness: Accomplishing goals. Achieving planned and desired results
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Efficiency: Not wasting resources. Providing “good value for money”
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Timeliness: Intelligence must be delivered while the content is still actionable under the customer's circumstances
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Currency: It concerns the production of outcome in time for the application of the resultants.
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Anticipation: Does it anticipate the intelligence needs of the decision maker?
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Orientation to the Future: History does not help to predict the future and an analysis based on the experience of the past can be absolutely meaningless. A good methodology must open new perspectives, looking deeply into the future.
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Equity: Equitable enforcement of the law. Equal treatment under the Constitution. Equitable distribution of police services and resources
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Precision – Completeness: Does outcome have the required level of detail to satisfy the needs of the end user at his or her operational level?
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Usability: All intelligence communications must be in a form that facilitates ready comprehension and immediate application. Intelligence products must be compatible with the customer's capabilities for receiving, manipulating, protecting, and storing the product
Key Terms in this Chapter
Decision-Making: The result of cognitive and emotional processes, which determine the selection of a course of action among different alternatives.
Intelligence Politicization: It occurs when intelligence analysis is skewed, either deliberately or inadvertently, to give policymakers the results they desire.