Methods for Multi-Step Time Series Forecasting Neural Networks

Methods for Multi-Step Time Series Forecasting Neural Networks

Douglas M. Kline (University of North Carolina at Wilmington, USA)
Copyright: © 2004 |Pages: 25
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-59140-176-6.ch012
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Abstract

In this study, we examine two methods for Multi-Step forecasting with neural networks: the Joint Method and the Independent Method. A subset of the M-3 Competition quarterly data series is used for the study. The methods are compared to each other, to a neural network Iterative Method, and to a baseline de-trended de-seasonalized naïve forecast. The operating characteristics of the three methods are also examined. Our findings suggest that for longer forecast horizons the Joint Method performs better, while for short forecast horizons the Independent Method performs better. In addition, the Independent Method always performed at least as well as or better than the baseline naïve and neural network Iterative Methods.

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