Modelling the Effects of Climatic Variables and Political Instability on the Agricultural Sector in South Asian Countries

Abstract

This chapter observes the implication of climatic variables and political instability on agricultural production in South Asian countries. Average precipitation, average temperature, CO2 emission are considered as climatic factors, and gross area under cultivation and political instability are considered as non-climatic indicators in the empirical investigation. Panel ARDL model is adopted to examine the association of above-mentioned indicators with agricultural production. Pedroni cointegration and Kao cointegration tests are also applied to recognize cointegration between the variables. It showed that dependent variables and independent variables have a cointegration. Furthermore, the total area under cultivation and carbon dioxide emission showed a favorable effect on agricultural production. Agricultural production appears to decline as political instability increases in the long run. This chapter also emphasizes the importance of political stability to reduce the negative impact of climate change in the agricultural sector of South Asian countries.