Abstract
The annual task of forecasting forest fire danger is becoming increasingly relevant, especially in the context of global warming. The forecast of surface fires is most important, as more than 80% of all vegetation fires are surface fires. Practically all crown fires develop from surface fires. This chapter discusses the deterministic-probabilistic method for predicting the number of forest fires in a controlled forest area. This methodology is based on the assumption that the number of registered and projected forest fires is related to the probability of their occurrence. The influence of forest fire retrospective data on the predicted number of forest fires for some sites of the Timiryazevskiy forestry of the Tomsk region was studied. This chapter presents the results of a comparative analysis of forecast data and statistics.
TopBackground
Note that information on methods for predicting forest fire danger existing in Russia and abroad can be found in (Nesterov, 1949; Reyfsnyder, 1978; Kurbatskiy and Kostyrina, 1977). All techniques are based, as a rule, on the analysis of weather data.
Key Terms in this Chapter
Number of Forest Fires: Calculated (predicted) number of forest fire over controlled forest covered territory due to anthropogenic load and lightning activity.
Monitoring: Monitoring refers to the periodic calculation of the parameters of forest fire danger with a portion of information available in real time.
Anthropogenic Load: Different human activities on forested territories lead to forest fire occurrence and characterized by presence of fire sources.
Prediction: Under the prediction of forest fires is the calculation of the parameters of forest fire danger with a certain projection in advance in order to have enough time to anticipate an emergency. The calculation in this case is carried out in a mode ahead of the real time of the development of the catastrophe - the occurrence of a forest fire.
Forest Fire: Uncontrolled aerothermochemical phenomenon characterized by step-by-step mechanism which includes following stages: inert heating, moisture evaporation, high temperature terpens evaporation, dry organic matter pyrolysis, flammable combustion and smoldering.
Mathematical Simulation: The production of a computer model of forest fire conditions and prerequisites, especially for the purpose of study.