Simulating Crime Events and Crime Patterns in a RA/CA Model

Abstract

This chapter presents an innovative approach for simulating crime events and crime patterns. The theoretical basis of the crime simulation model is routine activities (RA) theory. Offenders, targets and crime places, the three basic elements of routine activities, are modeled as individual agents. The properties and behaviors of these agents change in space and time. The interactions of these three types of agents are modeled in a cellular automaton (CA). Tension, measuring the psychological impact of crime events to human beings, is the state variable of the CA. The model, after being calibrated by using a real crime data set in Cincinnati, is able to generate crime patterns similar to real patterns. Results from experimental runs of the model conform to known criminology theories. This type of RA/CA simulation model has the potential of being used to test new criminology theories and hypotheses.