Stochastic Methods for Estimation and Problem Solving in Engineering: Stochastic Methods of Decision Making in Aviation

Stochastic Methods for Estimation and Problem Solving in Engineering: Stochastic Methods of Decision Making in Aviation

Tetiana Shmelova (National Aviation University, Ukraine)
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-5225-5045-7.ch006

Abstract

In this chapter, the author presents stochastic methods in aviation. The stochastic methods are presented as methods of decision making (DM) of operators of air navigation systems (ANS) in risk and uncertainly. The ANS is presented as a socio-technical system (STS). Analysis influences the factors of professional and non-professional activities on DM of STS's operators. The author made an analysis of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) documents on risk assessment. To determine the quantitative characteristics of risk levels, models for DM by the operator of the aviation system under risk and uncertainty have been developed. The author demonstrates some interesting advantages offered by the new methodology of DM in STS and forecasting the behavior of the operator in an emergency situation (ES) for using models of DM in risk and uncertainty.
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Safety Requirements In Aviation

In aviation, significant attention is paid to Safety Management. Safety is the state in which the risk of harm to persons or of property damage is reduced to and maintained at or below, an acceptable level through a continuing process of hazard identification and risk management (International Civil Aviation Organization [ICAO], 2013). In determining an acceptable level of safety, it is necessary to consider such factors as the level of risk that applies the cost/benefits of improvements to the system, and public expectations on the safety of the aviation industry. To determine an acceptable level of risk and balance between flight performance and safety requirements, it is necessary to have quantitative characteristics of DM under risk conditions.

Safety is a dynamic characteristic of aviation with the help of which risk factors for flight safety should steadily decrease. It is important to note that adoption of efficiency indices of ensuring flight safety is frequently influenced by internal and international standards and also by cultural features (ICAO, 2004). While risk factors for flight safety and operating errors are under control, such opened and dynamic system as civil aviation may be controlled providing the necessary balance between flight performance and safety requirements for passengers and their baggage. Aviation systems cannot be wholly free from dangerous factors and connected with them risks, while, the elimination of aviation events and serious incidents continues to be the final goal of human activity in the sphere of aviation safety. Neither human activity nor systems created by it guarantee a total absence of operating errors and their consequence (ICAO, 2013).

International civil aviation organization constantly develops and improves proactive, based on the risks evaluation, methods, directed on the further decrease in a number of aviation events in the world. Also, ICAO encourages aviation communities to recognize the importance of adherence to the single global approach for safety improvement and monitoring (ICAO, 2013). A modern approach, founded on the characteristics (performance-based approach – PBA), based on the next three principles monitoring (ICAO, 2009):

  • The main accent on desired/necessary results;

  • Decision making, oriented on desired/necessary results;

  • Using facts and data while DM.

Herein the principle “using facts and data while decision making” admits that tasks shall comply with the widely known in Western management criteria SMART (specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and tіmebound) (ICAO, 2009). Such level of accuracy of tasks determination may be achieved only using the way of consistent and structural description of inhomogeneous components of aviation - aviation enterprises, aviation personnel, aviation infrastructure, techniques, rules and information that is used for creating of conditions and applying of aerospace by aircraft users.

In such a way, safety is a dynamic characteristic of aviation with the help of which risk factors for flight safety should steadily decrease. It is important to note that adoption of efficiency indices of ensuring flight safety is frequently influenced by internal and international standards and also by cultural features (ICAO, 2004). While risk factors for flight safety and operating errors are under control, such opened and dynamic system as civil aviation may be controlled providing the necessary balance between flight performance and safety requirements for passengers and their baggage. By taking a systematic approach to corporate decision-making and risk management, accidental losses are reduced (ICAO, 2013).

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