Strategic Human Resource Forecasting for an Internal Labor Market

Abstract

Every organization needs a staff appropriate for its tasks in order to accomplish its business objectives, both now and in the future. To gain insight in the quality and number of staff needed in the future, human resource forecasting models are being used. This chapter addresses the design of a simulation model for human resources forecasting, which is being developed for the Chief of Naval Personnel at the Royal Netherlands Navy. The aim is to provide their Director of Naval Manpower Planning with tools that give insight into the effects of strategic decisions on personnel build-up, and the effects of changes in personnel on reaching the organization’s business objectives. This chapter introduces the major aspects of human resource forecasting. After that, the kinds of models that have been developed so far are presented, together with their merits and shortcomings. It is shown that a new way to investigate the future needs of manpower in an organization might be more effective than the current practice. The new models rely heavily on the use of simulation, and actually try to imitate the internal labor market and the external influences.