The Societal Transformation Framework Applied to Analyse the Evolution of Demographics in the Mediterranean Area for Geopolitical Analysis (EDMA4GA)

Introduction

The MA region is undergoing intensive demographic, social, cultural, economic and environmental-climate changes. Its population growth, combined with the growth of coastal urban areas generates multiple pressures stemming from increased demand for space, water and energy resources. These pressures are amplified by various types of crisis, tourism and other; and the main facts are (Barcelona Convention, 2017).:

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  Population and development:

  • 1)

    The total population of the MA grew from 281 million in 1970 to 419 million in 2000 and to 472 million in 2010.

  • 2)

    The population is predicted to reach 572 million by 2030. Four countries account for about 60% of the total population: Egypt (82 million), Turkey (72 million), France (63 million), and Italy (60 million).

  • 3)

    The MA’s population is concentrated near the coasts.

  • 4)

    The concentration of population in coastal zones is the heaviest in the western Mediterranean, the western shore of the Adriatic Sea, the eastern shore of the Aegean Levantine region, and the Nile Delta.

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  The MA is the world’s leading tourism area in terms of both international and domestic tourism with more than 300 million international tourist arrivals representing 30% of total world tourists.

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  MA’s coast is one of the busiest seas in the world, harvesting 20% of seaborne trade, 10% of world container throughput and over 200 million passengers.

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  Energy, Gas and Oil exploration and exploitation, Mining and Manufacturing activities are important and the lack of major iron and, especially, coal reserves within the MA influenced the industrial development path of the countries surrounding the MA.

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  Fisheries and aquaculture is very important where about 85 percent of Mediterranean and Black Sea stocks assessed are fished at biologically unsustainable levels.

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  It is a historical and archaeological unique human construct, where all MA’s countries have immense treasures, like for example Egypt, Israel, Lebanon, Turkey, Greece, France, Italy…

The heterogenous nations of peoples that have chosen the MA as their habitat has strongly influenced various other civilizations since the origin of humanities, that draw back to more than ten thousand of years. MA nations, distinguished themselves by their longevity, creativity, culture, openness, adaptability, perseverance, risk taking, risky adventures and a specific style of life. These nations mainly include: Latins, Byzantines, SPs, Hebrews, Turco-Asians, north-Africans, Assyrians/Syriac, Arameans, Arabs, Illyrians, Slaves and other nations which originated from MA’s neighbouring areas. The MA is the first region to be highly civilized and is the region that has seen the emergence of the three monotheistic religions:

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  Judaism, mainly in Israel, with important minorities in all southern European countries.

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  Christianity, mainly in Spain, France, Italy, Malta, Slovenia, Croatia, Monte-negro, Greece, Cyprus, Lebanon and having important minorities in Egypt and Syria.

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  Islam, mainly in Turkey, Egypt, Albania, Syria, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco; having important minorities in southern European countries, like France, Spain and Italy.

Background

The MA is presented as a heterogeneous geographical area, where demography has helped to create this narrative of the MA of contrasts in which the different coasts are systematically opposed (Doignon, 2019):

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  A northern shore, which is in decline, with a very low fertility rates and an ageing population.

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  The young and fertile southern and MEA coasts, which are experiencing exponential growth.