The Use of Quantitative Methods in Investment Decisions: A Literature Review

The Use of Quantitative Methods in Investment Decisions: A Literature Review

Serkan Eti
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-7998-8049-3.ch001
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Abstract

Quantitative methods are mainly preferred in the literature. The main purpose of this chapter is to evaluate the usage of quantitative methods in the subject of the investment decision. Within this framework, the studies related to the investment decision in which quantitative methods are taken into consideration. As for the quantitative methods, probit, logit, decision tree algorithms, artificial neural networks methods, Monte Carlo simulation, and MARS approaches are taken into consideration. The findings show that MARS methodology provides a more accurate results in comparison with other techniques. In addition to this situation, it is also concluded that probit and logit methodologies were less preferred in comparison with decision tree algorithms, artificial neural networks methods, and Monte Carlo simulation analysis, especially in the last studies. Therefore, it is recommended that a new evaluation for investment analysis can be performed with MARS method because it is understood that this approach provides better results.
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The Usage Of Probit Model In Investment Decisions

General Information About Probit Model

Probit is a method used when the dependent variable has two categories (Yüksel, Özsarı & Canöz, 2016). Generally, the 0-1 binary variable can be coded as “successful-unsuccessful”, “yes or no” that is a method of predicting or classifying variables by means of qualitative or quantitative variables. Again, the binary variable can be used to detect variables that affect a variable (Oktar & Yüksel, 2015a).

Probit is a generalized linear model. In this model, the relationship between the independent variables and the probability that the dependent variable belongs to a category is considered linear (Yüksel & Özsarı, 2017). The general expression of a simple probit model is,

probit(𝜋(x)) = a +bx

The probit link function applied to π(x) gives the standard normal distribution (z-score) where the probability of the left tail is equal to π (x) (Agresti, 2003).

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