Today, 55% of the world's population lives in large cities or dense urban areas, large concrete jungles whose constructions are responsible for between five and ten percent of the world's carbon dioxide. It is estimated that by 2050 this proportion will grow to 68%. Is the society of this decade prepared to deal with this congestion? And society 30 years from now? Inequality, waste generation, consumption and resource depletion in front of the headline that has been sold in recent years: 'Smart cities, zero emissions and technologies that surpass science fiction'. 'The residues of today's architecture will be the materials of the architecture of the future' This headline makes us reflect on whether we are really thinking, not only about the reuse of materials and the design of mobile structures, but also about the great cost of returning to the environment that have a large part of the materials used in the architecture of the XXI century.
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Today, the mean global temperature has increased at least 1.0ºC compared to pre-industrial times and it is estimated it will reach 1.5oC between 2030 and 2050 if it continues to increase at the current rate. This warming could lead to devastating impacts, such as extreme droughts, sea level rise, marine heatwaves and the loss of biodiversity, among other (New et al., 2022; O’Neill et al., 2022). With increased risks to the health, safety, livelihood and economic growth of people and countries globally. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ipcc) it is not inconsistent to assume that“warming caused by anthropogenic emissions from the pre-industrial period to the present will last for centuries to millennia and will continue to cause further long-term changes in the climate system...” (Masson-Delmotte et al., 2018).
Reconciling the effects of climate change with the projected growth in human population and subsequent urban areas poses a big challenge. It is a fact that cities will continue to grow at an accelerated rate, and therefore, probably in an uncontrolled and unequal manner. According to a report published by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations, more than 65% of the world's population will live in urban areas by 2050 (Dodman et al., 2022), with a figure that exceeds 6.6 billion inhabitants. However, it will be the low- and middle-income countries that will develop the fastest, where more than 90% of the population will settle in less developed regions such as India, Nigeria, Bangladesh or the Democratic Republic of Congo (Cissé et al., 2022).
The growth of cities brings with it an increased risk from natural disasters and extreme weather events. About 20% of the world's population resides in large coastal cities, affected by storm surges and rising sea levels. Furthermore, 90% of urban expansion in developing countries occurs in risk areas and through unplanned and uncontrolled settlements (Baraya, 2022; Cissé et al., 2022; Dodman et al., 2022; Mirzabaev et al., 2022; Serrano Yuste, 2015; Souza, 2021; Stouhi, 2021).
Is this decade’s society prepared to deal with this congestion? And the society of 30 years from now? Inequality, waste generation, consumption and depletion of resources confronts the selling headlines of recent years: 'Smart cities, zero emissions and technologies that go beyond science fiction'.
Indisputably, risk exposure faced by each population, each infrastructure, each socioeconomic system and each cultural asset varies widely between regions and within them, for not all settlements have the same requirements. Accordingly, impacts faced by each settlement due to climate change must be taken into account (O’Neill et al., 2022). Impacts on food and water systems, on infectious diseases, on the increasing mobility of the population from rural to more developed urban areas, and consequently, on changes in distribution and urban planning. Many people today live in unsafe homes within polluted environments. People who suffer from chronic illnesses or struggle against a context of poverty, insecurity and scarcity of jobs and educational opportunities (Masson-Delmotte et al., 2018; New et al., 2022; O’Neill et al., 2022). As many have asserted, the pandemic that began in early 2020 has been a 'wake-up call' towards future urban models. Climate change has not only violently altered the planet's biodiversity, it has exacerbated the lack of drinking water, the reproduction rate of increasingly destructive pests, the intensity and frequency of floods and droughts (Dodman et al., 2022). Food scarcity has led to a whole wave of diseases that threaten our health and well-being and that are increasingly affecting informal and high-density settlements where social distancing is minimal and hygiene is a commodity for the very few (New et al., 2022).