The methodology used to develop our trends analyses involves three steps.
First, it is loosely based on content analysis, a formal technique based on document scanning, and the cataloging of found categories. For example, if the subject of “Linux” appears in 100% of the scanned material, then its content score is high, and if “Linux support” appears in 75% of the material as part of the general Linux coverage, then a pattern can be identified. These patterns become the source of potential trends. The primary materials scanned to do the high level content analysis include the following:
Content Sources
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Various Investment Bank Analyses and Reports
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Various Company Reports
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Forrester Reports
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Aberdeen Reports
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Selected Gartner Reports
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Selected Books
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Application Development Trends
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Bank Systems and Technology
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Baseline
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BizEd
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BioIT World
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Business 2.0
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Business Finance
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Business Week
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C@ll Center CRM Solutions
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Communications Convergence
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Communications of the ACM
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Communications News
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Communications Solutions
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Communication Systems Design
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Communications Technology
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Computer Reseller News (CRN)
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Computer Technology Review
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Computer Telephony
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Computerworld
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CT Media
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CSO
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CRM
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CRN
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Customer Interaction Solutions
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Customer Interface
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Customer Support Management
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CFO
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Direct
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Document Processing Technology
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DocuWorld
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DM Management
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DM Review
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eBusiness Advisor
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EC Technology News
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e-learning
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Electronic News
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Electronic Commerce World
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Entrepreneur
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Enterprise Development
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Enterprise Systems Journal
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Enterprise Systems
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eWeek
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Fast Company
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Federal Computer Week
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Forbes
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Fortune
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FSB - Fortune Small Business
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Frontline Solutions
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Government Computer News
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Government Executive
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GPS World
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HP World
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IBM Think Research
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Inc.
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Inc. Technology
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Information Week
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Infoworld
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Insurance & Technology
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Integrated Communications Design
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Integrated System Design
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Intelligent Enterprise
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Internet Week
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Inter@ctive Week
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Internet World
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Internetworld.news
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IEEE Computer
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IEEE Pervasive Computing
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IEEE Software
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IEEE Spectrum
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IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man & Cybernetics
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Knowledge Management
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KM World
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Microsoft Executive Circle
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Military & Aerospace Electronics
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Mobile Computing
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NASA Tech Briefs
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.Net Magazine
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Net Economy
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Network Computing
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Network Magazine
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Network World
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New Architect
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Optimize
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PC World
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Profit: The Oracle Applications Magazine
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Presentations
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Red Herring
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Sales & Marketing Automation
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Software Development Times
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Sm@rt Partner
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Sm@art Reseller
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Software Development
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Storage, Inc.
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Syllabus
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Tech Briefs
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TechDecisions for Insurance
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Technology Horizons
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Technology Review
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Technological Horizons in Education Journal
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Telecom Business
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Telephony
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Teleprofessional
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Teradatareview
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Transform Magazine
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The Industry Standard
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VAR Business
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XML & Web Services Magazine
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Washington Technology
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Wired
Second, the patterns are assessed against an existing data base of trends developed over a long period of time.
Third, for validation purposes the patterns and trends are discussed with “real” analysts and practitioners including investment banking analysts, CIOs, CTOs, and technology vendors.
All of this is synthesized into the trends that appear to be valid at a point in time. Obviously, trends change—though it is the persistent leading edge ones that investors are most interested in.
CIOs, vendors, and VCs must all conduct technology trends analyses, though for somewhat different reasons. In the technology investment business, trends analysis should be a core competency.
Perhaps the best way to illustrate how technology trends can be tracked and documented is to illustrate a couple of trends analyses. The first example is Pervasive Computing and the second is Intelligent Systems Technology. These analyses appear in Appendices A and B at the end of the book.